Last time I talked about jobs will change in the New Digital Age. Basically, if you make analog things – things that move – look out. Record players gave way to DVDs which gave way to streaming and solid-state disks. Technology is getting smaller and eliminating motion. The days of turning the crank to open a close your window are over. The entire world is moving from Analog to Digital.
Today I’d like to provide an example of an actual, real-life 21st century business model that got this wrong.
It started out by … sounding digital. Take a traditional one-time purchase, the movie ticket, and turn it into a monthly subscription. Sort of like Spotify for movies. So simple it couldn’t fail.
Until, of course, it did.
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”, a hit Netflix series, is set in 1958. The show features elevator operators, telephone switch operators and bellhops that carry luggage. In season two, there is a “house boy”, a college student who looks after a family at a vacation resort.
None of those jobs exist anymore.
In the second season, the main characters vacation at a resort in the Hamptons on long Island outside of New York City. While the rich continue to flock to the Hamptons, their sister-resorts in the Catskill Mountains have faced roman-empire levels of decline.
What jobs are safe?
Predicting the future turns out to be harder than you think. George Orwell published a book in 1949 that predicted what the world might look like in 1984 – thirty-five years later. Orwell hoped to prevent it. In 1984, famed science fiction writer Isaac Asimov , took up the 35-year challenge and made his 2019 predictions.
I’m no Isaac Asimov, but I’ll take a crack at one thing to avoid in the next ten years. Ironically, it is all based on what Asimov got wrong. Continued »
On January 3rd, I will have completed my first month working full time as a software developer. The time has flown by, the first couple of months always do. There are a blur of new hire meetings, meeting new people, learning what the product does and how to use it. Oh, and for me there is also the slight career change to make things a little more interesting. I don’t know what the normal first month looks like for a developer, or even what yours looked like, but here is a little about mine.
In October, IBM purchased Red Hat for $34 billion dollars, about one-third the value of IBM. By way of comparison, IBM has thirty times the number of employees, at 366,000 versus about 12,000. This week, they sold the IBM Notes division to HCL for $1.8 billon. If IBM is hurting for cash, a small deal for one-twentieth the value won’t do much. What is going on here – and if Notes were such a bad deal, why would anyone buy it? Continued »
The year was 1999. Dial-up service was the most popular way to get online, people used to drive to stores to get DVD’s – and compact disks. The iPod would not exist for two more years and MP3 players were awkward and hard to use. What most college students did have was a CD player and the ability to “rip” CD’s to their hard drive.
A young college student named Sean Fanning had an idea for a music-sharing service, which would become Napster.
Sean was a college sophomore without much computer science training. He certainly didn’t have the legal background to do music sharing. If he had, he wouldn’t even have started the project. I call this idea of not knowing something is a bad idea, and doing it anyway, the “napster effect.” It is responsible for a great deal of the innovation in the world — and a fair but of pain for the technical people.
Two months ago I started to take a course on Udemy building secure cryptocurrency. The course walks you through downloading the code for bitcoin, which is open source, then rolling your own network copy of it.
Then this showed up in my Github alerts:
This is a real vulnerability in the core bitcoin code that allowed the “contributor” to steal all the bitcoins from anyone using a bitcoin “wallet” called Copay.
It turns out, like the unsinkable titanic, my secure cryptocurrency isn’t.
It’s December, the time of year when real IT pros are so busy working they look up and realize it’s Christmas Eve. They don’t have anything for family, let alone “Christmas Stocking Stuffer”-sized gifts for friends and peers.
Don’t be that person.
For the fourth time, I’m going to take a crack at suggesting some Christmas Stocking Stuffers for you. And, yes, I’ll do it for free. Continued »
I mentioned in my last post here that I start a new full time position as a developer next week on Monday. I have done a lot of tester interviews over the last (nearly) 15 years, and for the most part they are obscenely easy. To the point it is obvious that most people don’t know how to tell whether or not someone is competent. Normally, I’d get questions about my experience in agile, they would ask a handful of questions about definitions of words commonly used in testing (regression test, smoke test, you know the drill) and then the interviewer would ask me how I would test a thing. The last thing I was supposed to imagine I was testing was a cash register. Sillyness.
This isn’t going to surprise you developers out there, but dev interviews are actually hard and stressful. I was surprised how different they were and in particular how different they felt.
Last week IBM bought Red Hat for $34 million; this week HP Enterprise is buying BlueData. Blackberry is purchasing Cylance; Oracle is purchasing Telari Networks.
In my twenty-odd year tech career, I have been purchased twice. My consulting company has also had one acquisition offer that we turned down in 2014. Many of my peers have gone through acquisitions, and all of us have faced the same set of questions.
- Will things better?
- Should I look for a new job?
- Should I start looking for a new job now?
While mergers and acquisitions are each sold separately, I find that if you look hard enough, you can usually find clues about where things are headed.
Here’s how to find them.
These are my last few days as a tester for the foreseeable future. On Monday, I’ll be moving out of contract work and out of testing at the same time, and into a full time position as a developer. I have been wanting to make this career hop (not exactly a leap) for the last several years, but a combination of fear and being a contractor has held me firmly in place. No one wants to pay a contractor to learn how to write production code, and well, I think the fear of jumping into a new skill set after having spent 15 years dedicated to something already explains itself.
So, why am I doing this?