RTFM Education – Virtualization, VMware, Citrix

Apr 16 2009   1:31AM GMT

Have you been watching VMware’s Share Price?

Michelle Laverick Michelle Laverick Profile: Michelle Laverick

At the beginning of the year my royalites from both the Vi3book and SRM book started to roll in. I set up a US Dollar Account with HSBC with view to buying some shares in some tech stocks I personally felt were undervalued by the Bear Market that we wereare living in. My intention was in the grand tradition of the speculator was the buy cheap, and sell high. After all there’s no way shares could fall any futher… OR could they…?

I remember back last year VMware shares were at the $30 dollar mark, and me and my students (amateur stockbrokers the lot of us) discussed whether this was a good time to buy shares in VMware. In the end the next pinch of credit crunch kicked which saw shares plumet once again.

Well, since then I’ve been watching the shares of Microsoft, Citrix and VMware. The big 3 virtualization vendors. I have no intention of buying MSFT or CTXS stock – but I put them on my google share watch list – so each morning I could compare them. I set up the widget by pretending I bought the shares at the LOWEST price – so I can see how much they have recovered or even lost – by miscalculating when if the market had really hit rock bottom.

VMware’s share prices has recovered quite a bit from its lowest at the $18-19 mark. And through the Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb mark is bobbled up and down from anywhere between $21-24. With one weeks gains, being wiped out by some other totally related bad announcement. However, things have changed again – and significantly. If you look at the google chart form 5 year perspective you wouldn’t really see this rise, as VMware stock tumbled (along with everyone else for that matter) form their height at the $118-120 mark:

 If you look at those shares over the last 3 months – there’s been a significant increase – of almost $11 dollars on in a matter of a couple of months.

So what about me? Did  I buy those shares? Well, I didn’t for fear of them falling further. Which says something confidence has been really undermined in people – and its going to take a lot more good news that what is trickling out at the moment for that to happen. Secondly, my training work went very quiet, very quickly in March & April – May is looking better. That scared the bejesus out of me – considering its 90% of RTFM Education Ltd revenue. Things are looking better – I’m putting this lull down to fact that VMware have a huge product release waiting in the wings. I’m hoping this is a the calm before the storm. But do I still have the confidence to buy those shares.

What would you do?

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