We have heard this talk before, of course: Microsoft’s power and influence has peaked and the company is on a slow slide into irrelevancy.
The latest chatter about this started late last week with Roger McNamee, co-founder of Elevation Partners, in an appearance on CNBC. Asked what companies and technologies would dominate the Internet over the next few years, he said the coming tidal wave of Apple iPads and Android-based smart phones would sink the fortunes of PCs and, along with them, Windows.
“For Microsoft Windows, this is the cycle where it stops growing,” he said. “iPads and smartphones allow corporations to trade down and eliminate thousands of dollars per year in supporting Windows desktops. This is the year (2011) Windows has fallen below 50% of Internet-connected devices, down from 97% 10 years ago.”
Corporations could save as much as $100 billion by eliminating the support costs of desktop PCs and laptops over the next few years, McNamee said, with a lot of those savings expected to be used to purchase tablets and smartphones.
But to predict the rapid rise iPads and smart phones alone can crumble the Windows franchise in the next phase of the Internet, thereby relegating Microsoft to a second rate power, is a bit short sighted.
True, Microsoft doesn’t figure to have a strong offering to go up against the iPad and Android-based phones any time soon (sorry Windows Mobile). But what it does have are tens of thousands of corporations committed to long-term licensing agreements for its core Windows products — products corporations have invested billions of dollars in training users over the decades. And, oh yeah, the company has tens of billions in cash to buy its way into the next generation of Internet computing.
But here is the real threat to Microsoft: Microsoft.
Over the past few years Microsoft has steadily increased its financial and philosophical commitment to establishing a meaningful cloud strategy, introducing significant platforms such as Azure and Office 365. The company will eventually deliver cloud versions of its core Windows products if it hopes to keep pace with its major competitors. If it continues along this path Redmond could cannibalize sales of its existing desktop and server products that generate the bulk of its $67 billion in revenues.
In a recent conversation with one of the most respected (if not most entertaining) Microsoft observers, Mark Minasi, he summed it up this way:
“Microsoft is making this huge on the cloud, which could prove to be a Windows desktop killer. They want to have both Azure for its apps stuff as well as keeping its current platforms for hosted or SaaS kinds of things like Exchange and SharePoint. It’s like they are carrying their favorite son in hopes of adopting a bigger, better one. This could make for an interesting Harvard Business Review case study in the future.”
If the Microsoft visionaries have worked out a smooth transition between its on premises/hosted/SaaS-based products and their upcoming cloud-based versions that doesn’t devastate its revenue flow, they’re not saying. And perhaps it is unfair to expect them to offer up details of such a transition this early on. But with both cloud computing technologies and user interest in them growing rapidly, Microsoft should shed some light on this sooner rather than later.
For now, I think it’s fair to assume that iPads and smartphones alone won’t topple one of the elite suppliers of enterprise technologies any time soon. Only Microsoft can do that.
Ed Scannell is Executive Editor with SearchDatacenter.com. He can be contacted at email@example.com.
For a recent article on Opalis and third-party integration, I spoke with Microsoft director Robert Reynolds to learn about the company’s strategy for the automation technology going forward. The story included a few choice details from Reynolds regarding Microsoft’s reliance on the IT community for the development of Opalis integration packs and how the new Opalis branding will be unveiled at Microsoft Management Summit (MMS) 2011.
Those quotes were just a sampling from a much longer conversation, however, so I thought I’d pull out a few interesting notes that didn’t make it into the original article here.
It sounds like Windows Intune is just about ready for prime time.
Microsoft’s new technology which it describes as “an end-to-end Microsoft solution that brings together Windows cloud services for PC management and endpoint protection” is set for commercial availability on March 23 – right smack dab in the middle of Microsoft Management Summit (MMS) 2011. A website dedicated to Intune is now up where folks can learn more about it before MMS and presumably test and purchase it once it ships.
You have to hand it to Quest Software CEO Doug Garn — the guy is a great sport.
Recently, my colleagues Brian Madden, Gabe Knuth and Bridget Botelho recorded a video for SearchVirtualDesktop.com. The purpose of the video was to preview what’s ahead for desktop virtualization in 2011, and the conversation touched on several different topics.
When Quest made its way into the convo, Brian (always willing to share his thoughts on … well … anything) made a crack about Quest’s logo being somewhat outdated (check in at about the 12:20 mark): “Can I say this directly to you, Quest? Can you change your logo and update it so it’s not a 1992 logo?”
Not one to take those kinds of remarks lying down, Garn and the folks at Quest put together a video of their own especially for Brian. Instead of ruining it for you, click play below to see Garn’s response. You have to respect folks that don’t take themselves too seriously these days.
It sounds like Microsoft is finally close to announcing RTM for both service packs soon, with MSDN availability set for Feb. 16, with a Feb. 22 release date for the Web.
ORIGINAL POST 2/02/2011
320 days. That’s how long it’s been since news first broke of the initial service packs for Windows 7 and Windows Server 2008 R2. Yet while general availability was expected for early Q1, January has come and gone with SP1 still officially under wraps.
So what’s going on? Back on January 14, a Russian Microsoft blog posted that both service packs had been shipped to OEMs, leading many to believe that a release to MSDN was imminent. Not long after the news spread like wildfire, the same Russian site posted an update stating that SP1 was in fact not released to OEMs, and that the original post included some “inaccuracies”. (Amusingly, the retraction is the only part of the entry that’s in English.)
ZDNet UK just posted some screenshots from the SCVMM 2012 demos last week, for anyone interested in a few visuals of the interface in action.
ORIGINAL POST 1/25/2011
Those who enjoyed Microsoft’s cloud push last year are really going to like 2011. Many of the technologies that have been discussed over the past year are slowly beginning to see the light of day, starting with next version of System Center Virtual Machine Manager (SCVMM).
During a live meeting this week, Microsoft product manager Kenon Owens demoed the yet-to-be released SCVMM 2012 (previously dubbed “v.Next” before TechEd Europe in November). Microsoft is positioning SCVMM as a key component for organizations looking to private clouds, and Owens broke down some of the ways the software can be used to control infrastructures and services in a cloud-based environment.
Is 5:00 p.m. on a Friday too late for a little Hyper-V-centric news? Nah.
Microsoft’s Michael Kleef just posted a short update on his personal TechNet blog about a new discovery involving Hyper-V R2 SP1. Apparently, the latest version of Hyper-V will now support up to 12 virtual machines per logical processor, up from the previous max of eight, but only for Windows 7 SP1 guests.
In other words, admins can host up to 12 guest operating systems per logical processor on a Hyper-V host as long as each of those guest OSes are running Windows 7 SP1. Otherwise, the ratio of VMs/logical processor remains at 8:1.
My colleague Bridget Botelho just posted a much more detailed follow-up to this story with insight from IT professionals and analysis of Microsoft’s past investments in the tablet market. Definitely worth a read.
ORIGINAL POST 12/22/2010
It was always going to come to this, wasn’t it? Reports have surfaced this week that Microsoft is set to change the Windows OS as you know it in an effort to make a bigger splash in the mobile device market.
Bloomberg (followed by several other news outlets) reported that Microsoft has begun work on a new version of Windows designed specifically for tablets and smartphones. Though plans for the OS are officially confidential, leaks have flooded the Internet with news that Microsoft will provide more details during next month’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES).
The Bloomberg report states that the “new Windows” will be built on architecture from ARM Holdings PLC in addition to the usual x86 chip technology from Intel and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). The ARM design is a better fit for smaller mobile devices because the chips consume less power. In fact, many devices – including the iPad – already use it.
Microsoft released to manufacturing the final build for Windows Small Business Server 2011 Standard this week, the latest version of the company’s server OS for small- and medium-sized organizations. The Standard edition (formerly codenamed Windows SBS “7”) is only half the SBS story, however, as Microsoft is also set to put out an Essentials edition for the smallest of the small businesses as well.
Previously dubbed “Aurora”, SBS 2011 Essentials hasn’t RTM’d yet, though it’s expected in the first half of next year, with a new beta potentially dropping in January.
So what’s the difference between the two?
“Dynamic Memory for Hyper-V is Microsoft’s answer to VMware’s memory overcommit technology for ESX. “
“Dynamic Memory is in fact not the same as memory overcommit, and now that you mention it, VMware’s stuff is still way better.”
If you’ve paid any attention at all to server virtualization news this past year, you’ve likely heard some variation of those two statements. Ad nauseam. Over and over again.
The funny thing is, Dynamic Memory isn’t even officially out yet; even though the release candidate is now available, SP1 for R2 won’t officially ship until early next year. But ever since news of the feature first broke back in the spring, IT folks have debated the degree to which it will put Microsoft virtualization at equal footing with VMware.