Hey! I just read a fascinating ditty in Jason Hiner’s recent Between the Lines blog for ZDNet; it’s entitled “74% of work PCs still run XP, and they’re 4.4 years old.” This item does a short, scary, and convincing job of calling the big wins into question that Microsoft has been reporting for sales of Windows (150 million copies sold as of the end of May, or 7 copies per second since the official release in October 2009) — at least, as far as enterprise sales and adoptions are concerned.
Let me explain. Hiner reports that Microsoft shared what can only be call “very interesting numbers” at its Worldwide Partner Conference 2010. At that summit, MS Windows Corporate VP Tammi Reller revealed that 74 percent of business computers still run Windows XP, and also indicated that the average age for corporate PCs is 4.4 years. These are surprising numbers, especially in light of other surveys on enterprise/business OS pilot, adoption, and use plans. They could also spell disappointment for Steve Ballmer’s prediction last Monday (July 12, 2010) that Microsoft would sell 350 million copies of Windows 7 by the end of this year.
Given the low current adoption rate Microsoft is convinced that it’s a golden opportunity that will result in huge sales for the foreseeable future. And certainly, a PC fleet that’s averaging around four-and-a-half years old is past due for a hardware refresh as well — especially if you put any credence into studies about the IT hardare lifecycle, which indicates that machines over three years old become increasingly difficult and expensive to support, and that five years is about as much productive life as any organization should try to squeeze of its PCs (and for notebooks, the cycle is more like 3-4 years, given increased wear and tear to which mobile machines are subject).
On the other hand, Hiners observes that with 74 percent of corporate machines still running XP, and with Windows 8 now under discussion, it’s possible that some portion (maybe even a substantial one) of this population may decide to stay put, and wait even longer to upgrade. Just for grins, I took the survey on his blog page to see how previous readers have reacted to a couple of questions, and those results firmly underscore the notion that what MS spins as an opportunity could also result in fewer sales than projected:
Although there’s no information available about the size (or quality) of the population being surveyed here, the results certainly provide a rough-and-ready affirmation of what’s reported regarding adoption plans and PC age. Now, it remains to be seen whether the need to avoid unpleasant increases in support and maintenance costs trumps an apparently strong desire to stand pat with XP, or vice-versa!