Reports are popping up all over the Web that Windows 7 broke the 20 percent market share barrier last month, according to figures released by Internet tracking firm NetApplications over the New Year’s weekend. The company pegs Windows 7 online usage for December 2010 at 20.9% of all desktops counted. This is up 1.2 points from the preceding month, and represents a usage share level that Windows Vista never, ever reached.
Vista’s current usage level has dropped to 12.1%, which is on par with its usage rate in July 2008 (eight months after its initial business release, and six months after the GA release in January of that year). At the same time, Windows overall usage rate is down to a “mere” 90.3%, which is down almost two percent for 2010, according to this ComputerWorld story (1/3/2011). From November to December, Windows XP’s losses exactly matched Windows 7′s gains, as it declined by 1.2 percent to 56.7% for December 2010.
What does all this mean? The migration momentum from XP to Windows 7 (or Vista to Windows 7 for those intrepid enough to have moved to Vista in the first place) is clearly picking up. I expect 2011 to be a big year for enterprise Windows 7 adoptions and migrations. Net Applications predicts that Windows 7 will peak in October 2012 at a rate of 44.7%, though that time is still more than 18 months out. It will be interesting to see if the current numbers that permit them to guesstimate such future trends are borne out by real events. Only time will tell!