A recently published Gartner study (cited in stories at computing.co.uk and FierceCIO TechWatch) apparently predicts numerous interesting Windows 7 developments and phenomena. First and foremost, Gartner predicts that somewhere around 42 percent of all PCs world-wide will run Windows 7 by the end of 2011, giving it first-place ranking and finally ahead of Windows XP on the desktop. Second, and perhaps more interesting is a quotation from Gartner Research Director Annette Jump that reads “Many enterprises have been planning their deployment of Windows 7 for the last 12 to 18 months, and are now moving rapidly to Windows 7.”
Headline from Gartner Press Release on Win7 Report
Reasons cited for the forecasted jump include increasing IT budgets in 2011 and 2011, along with a substantial number of Windows 7 migrations initiated in the final quarter of last year (2010). While this may seem like happy news for Microsoft, long term-predictions are less rosy for Windows. According to the already-cited TechWatch article “…it is interesting to note Gartner’s opinion that Windows 7 is likely to be the last operating system from Microsoft deployed in such numbers. Gartner attributes this prediction to the rise of ‘OS-agnostic’ applications for enterprises, meaning software not tied to a particular platform.” That story goes on to say that her research indicates that such applications are likely to comprise half of all apps in use by 2012.
I do think this means that Windows 7 has finally reached or is nearing the tipping point for enterprise adoption, but I’m not so sure that Gartner is right about a decline in Windows use in the enterprise. All that hardware (desktops and notebooks, especially) has to run some kind of OS, and there’s really no viable alternative that has all of the imaging, installation, deployment, configuration, and management tools by which enterprise IT departments live and die out there right now. I believe that Windows will remain unchallenged as the enterprise client OS until such time as a fully-fledged alternative makes itself available. Right now, this is just a mythical beast and until that critter becomes real, Windows stays in the catbird seat.