Here are some of my predictions on what I expect (more like hope) to hear loud and clear above the constant static to be generated next week. I have no special access or insight other than my conversations with my contacts. These predictions are just my guesses.

ESX/ESXi

• Continuous Availability – Demonstrated in the past at VMworlds, the ability to simultaneously run a VM across multiple ESX/ESXi hosts and provide a synchronized, instantaneous failover will be touted as the foundation for the next generation of VMware’s HA (high availability) features.
• Cloud Infrastructure – Building on advances like continuous availability, VMware’s vision of ubiquitous and automated virtual infrastructure will be discussed in detail.

VDI (Virtual Desktop Infrastructure)

• Offline VMs – The latest version of VMware’s virtual desktop manager product, VDM, will help push the VDI concept to the next level of adoption with the ability to provide mobile users a local copy of a VM that will synchronize with a master version when on the corporate network.
• Faster, more flexible and efficient VM deployments – I expect to hear about advancements in the ability to rapidly deploy large numbers of VMs from a single master template using minimal storage space. This will be achieved by separating the operating system, applications, and user profiles into separate components that are individually pieced together to form a customized virtual desktop. Enhancements from storage vendors in thin provisioning and LUN cloning will support this model.

VMware Workstation 6.5

• Version 6.5 – VMworld 2008 would be a great time to release the latest version, wouldn’t it? With the growing popularity of Sun’s xVM Virtualbox VMware should take the opportunity to introduce the new version and all the automation, GUI, and performance improvements they’ve added.
• Integration of ACE – Building on the existing integration of VMware ACE in the current version, I expect VMware Workstation and ACE to merge into one product eventually.
• Free Version or enhancements to VMware Player – I’m not convinced that the full version of Workstation will ever be offered for free, but, just like VMware’s strategy with ESXi, I can imagine a free version of VMware Workstation that could be offered with limited features. Whether VMware introduces a restricted Workstation or just adds to the already free VMware Player, offering a free desktop product with comparable features to the competition would make sense.

“Promotional items or promotional products refers to articles of merchandise that are used in marketing and communication programs. These items are usually imprinted with a company’s name, logo or slogan, and given away at trade shows, conferences, and as part of guerilla marketing campaigns. These items are also referred to by the slang terms swag.”

I would definitely rank the VMworld Conference SWAG I received in the past among the best of the best.

For starters, at the last two VMworlds all attendees received a conference bag or backpack with a water bottle at the registration desk. Once registered and badged the immediate next step was to find the conference t-shirt table. Then, having had attended several VMworlds in a row, the next step was to find the VMworld Alumni special gift. All of this was done before I even got to the exhibitors!

Usually, the exhibitor booths are located in the same area as, or on the way to where the meals are served, so chances are good you will spend at least a couple of hours there during the week. Don’t assume a conference bag will be enough to hold all your SWAG once the Solutions Exchange is open though. I am not exaggerating when I say I averaged four to six shirts, two coffee mugs, at least one baseball cap, eight to 10 pens, and a hacky sack or some other similar toy per day at VMworld 2007. Do not also assume that you got all the good stuff on the first time through either. Many exhibitors change their SWAG during the week. The amount of money spent on the promotional items must be in the millions.

To illustrate the type and the volume of SWAG I am talking about check out this TechTargetTV video of SearchServerVirtualization.com’s editors Bridget Botelho and Jan Stafford going through all their stuff from VMworld 2007:

[kml_flashembed movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/Zm-o7bLovtg" width="425" height="350" wmode="transparent" /]

So when you start thinking about packing for VMword 2008 in Las Vegas, NV next week, be sure to allow some room in your luggage for all the vendor swag you will bring home. Be sure to allow enough room in your Inbox for all the follow up email you will start receiving soon after you get back home too. Hey, it’s part of the game. You want the t-shirt? Then get your conference badge scanned. Whether you like it or not, that’s the rules of engagement with the exhibitors in the Solutions Exchange. In my opinion it is more than worth it.

VMware’s official announcement explains the following:

“Under this program, Microsoft offers cooperative technical support to customers running Windows Server on validated, non-Microsoft server virtualization software, such as VMware ESX 3.5 update 2. Customers with support policies in place, and running Windows Server-based applications on VMware ESX 3.5u2, can receive cooperative technical support from Microsoft. VMware also offers an extra layer of protection for customers, outside of Microsoft’s Server Virtualization Validation Program, who work directly with VMware for support. The additional protection is a part of the VMware Premier Support contract with Microsoft that enables VMware to escalate application issues rapidly and work directly with Microsoft engineers to expedite resolution. “

The Windows Virtualization Team Blog published a post titled The Validated Hypervisor.

“ESX 3.5 update 2 now joins Windows Server 2008 Hyper-V as being validated to run Windows Server and associated Microsoft server applications. And now that ESX 3.5 has passed SVVP, VMware customers will join Novell customers as receiving cooperative technical support (if there’s a support policy in place, and the customer is running the validated configuration) for Microsoft software running in/on their virtualization software.”

This same Windows Virtualization Team Blog post also refers to Microsoft’s KB article 897615 originally published on August 19, 2008:

“… for vendors with whom Microsoft has established a support relationship that covers virtualization solutions, or for vendors who have Server Virtualization Validation Program (SVVP) validated solutions, Microsoft will support server operating systems subject to the Microsoft Support Lifecycle policy for its customers who have support agreements when the operating system runs virtualized on non-Microsoft hardware virtualization software. This support will include coordinating with the vendor to jointly investigate support issues.”

For more information on this great news read the complete articles and posts at the links above. Although ESXi 3.5 is not mentioned in either the Microsoft or VMware announcements today, I would assume since the kernel is the same for both versions ESXi 3.5 U2 is also considered validated under the SVVP policy. However, this is just my guess.

I would expect that any administrators that are currently skeptical about upgrading to ESX 3.5 U2 now have a compelling reason to reconsider.

More times than not, administrators that are reluctant to virtualize applications like these usually centralized their server infrastructure and are supporting large user bases accessing a load-balanced solution or a multi-node cluster. Thousands of mailboxes, hundreds of simultaneous sessions or concurrent job processing does not sound like a good fit for virtual machines at first glance, especially if you are only focused on migrating the current physical clustered configuration as is. Although possible to recreate as virtual machines, it is usually more complicated and therefore not desirable to attempt to P2V these configurations.

My opinion on this topic is that the advantages of virtual infrastructure sometimes warrant a redesign of the clustered service. In other words, consider changing the clustered design back into multiple stand alone virtual servers in order to leverage the unique virtualization features like live VM migration, distributed resource pooling, snapshots, and VM mobility. Let the virtualization hosts become the multiple nodes of your centralized model. If centralized user administration is the primary concern, then even though split into several VMs, all of your users, services and data are still under one roof, protected by the same UPS, and local to the same backup solution.

What about the potential for additional savings and efficiencies? We already know VI reduces power consumption, heat output, and takes up less rack space. You can go back to a Windows Standard version instead of an Enterprise or Data center edition. By eliminating the need for dedicated private heartbeat networks between the nodes you can reduce cabling and network ports. Administrative burden is reduced by doing away with cluster service accounts and specialized user and group permissions. Storage requirement complexity is minimized.

Finally, if concern for performance is the main barrier then consider the following. Even if you had a 1:1 consolidation ratio with an Exchange, SQL, or Citrix VM isolated on its own virtual host so it has exclusive access to physical resources, you still achieve most of the virtualization benefits discussed already.

The baselinemag.com article Virtualization Is the New Clustering by David Strom explores many of my points in greater detail and summarizes my opinions with the following quote:

“The combination of better resource use, reduced power and cooling in the data center, and more manageable applications delivery has made virtualization a very popular solution. As IT shops gain more expertise in delivering virtualized applications, they can also get a better handle on the kinds of load balancing and availability issues that once were the exclusive domain of clustering solutions.

“Indeed, virtualization continues to be complementary to—and is sometimes a less expensive replacement for—some applications that don’t require the up-to-the-nanosecond transaction-level failover that clustering provides. “

The blog post Workstation 6.5 beta – Release Candidate available on the Gabe’s Virtual World blog not only let me know VMware is getting closer to general availability with the latest Workstation release, but it also helps put VMware’s recent blunder into perspective. In short, Gabe posted because users of the Workstation 6.5 Beta 2 now have expired licenses that need to be upgraded for the new Release Candidate 1.

I’ve read several posts and comments over the last week stemming from the August 12 VMware ESX/ESXi Update 2 bug that expressed administrator outrage over the fact that VMware uses license expiration time bomb code in their products. Opinions ranged from “VMware is too concerned with protecting their software that it hurts it’s paying customers” to “product expiration code bugs are impossible to catch in the change control process so they should never be implemented.” I’m not arguing that either of these opinions is wrong or that VMware did not make a mistake, but time bomb licensing is a standard development practice. The primary purpose of the license expiration is to make sure all testers upgrade and VMware is not only supporting the latest version, but is getting technical feedback about the right code level. It was easy to lose sight of this during the frustration last week.

Let’s assume that VMware’s Quality Assurance and regression testing process doesn’t fail to remove or disable any license expiration code when Workstation 6.5 is finally generally available.

By the way, VMware Workstation 6.5 has some exciting new features. Go to the Workstation 6.5 Release Notes Page for more information.

Specifically, VMware’s post asked me to consider the inaccuracies they found:

“… evaluate the Microsoft calculator yourself – let us know what else you find! “

So I did just that, but it wasn’t how Microsoft calculated the numbers that bothered me most. I struggled to understand why a TCO and ROI calculator included a competitive analysis. After all, VMware’s TCO calculator doesn’t compare the cost of competitor’s products. What does that have to do with return on investment? It just seems out of place to me. Furthermore, if you go back and review VMware’s points they are mostly about the competitive cost comparison, too. It’s easy to forget we are discussing a TCO / ROI calculator.

As for using the calculator for ROI, it’s fine, I guess. But it did not live up to my basic expectations of helping with licensing. In fact, intentional or not, Microsoft comes across as trying to hide accurate licensing costs, as VMware points out:

“We did find a one-line disclaimer buried in the 66-page document: “Warning – Check pricing advice and rules as the automated recommendations here may not reflect all licensing rules.” Come on, guys – licensing is such a basic component for accurate TCO estimates. The disclaimer feels pretty weak.”

On the other hand, I think I can use the Windows Server Virtualization Calculators to help estimate licensing costs. But I shouldn’t have to use another calculator to verify the first one. Overall, I am left with the same feeling I get when trying to buy a new car. It’s similar to that doubt about the “dealership transport” charges or the frustration of feeling that I’m missing hidden costs even though the price is right. I am being forced to do way too much research.

I understand that the next few years will be filled with explaining the technical and financial differences between Microsoft, Citrix, VMware and all the other virtualization products. A competitive analysis calculator would come in handy. A single, unbiased virtualization competition calculator might be impossible to create, but even separate tools from each vendor that let you enter your own pricing numbers would be a great start. Call these tools what they really are. Don’t hide them in an ROI Calculator.

Will VMware eventually lose it’s market leadership position among hypervisor vendors? Several articles I have read recently speculate that, with offerings from Microsoft, Citrix and a handful of others, VMware’s days at the top are limited. Many reason that competition will ultimately force VMware to lower prices because so many options mean that the hypervisor will no longer be specialized technology, but instead become a commoditized offering companies can get from anyone and everyone. Another argument is that VMware’s current pricing is unattractive to small to medium sized business (SMB). The consensus among analysts is that the virtualization opportunity is still relatively untapped for SMBs, and the competition has the advantage due to price.

Maybe it’s because I just spent a week at the VMware Partner Exchange in San Diego and I am full of the VMware “Kool Aid”, but it appears to me that VMware has a pretty good strategy, focus and direction for staying ahead of the competition. While other vendors are still perfecting and marketing their hypervisor, VMware is talking about automation and management of the virtual data center with products like Site Recovery Manager, Lab Manager, Stage Manager, and Lifecycle Manager. Secondly, VMware is “winding up” it’s partners by providing incentives in the form of margins, programs, and intellectual collateral. You did not have to attend the Partner Exchange to realize this. VMware’s recent acquisitions, new product betas and announcements, and public communications have have shown this for some time now.

If hypervisor competition is really just about the hypervisor, or more specifically consolidating multiple physical servers on to a single virtualization host, then I have to agree that VMware will has some legit challengers. VMware ESXi (previously ESX3i) and the free VMware Server, however, continue to be the products well positioned to compete for the “I just want to squeeze as many guests as possible on a host” business. Let’s face it, VMware established this several years ago with the ESX 2.x product, and this is where most of the competition is entering the market today.

As far as the untapped market, if the hypervisor is truly all that SMBs want or can afford then VMware has it covered. Dell appears to have set the market pricing for the embedded hypervisor offerings just last week, and surprise, ESXi is the cheapest option! For $99 extra you can order new hardware pre-installed with the VMware hypervisor. Assuming all hardware manufacturers follow with similar competitive pricing, don’t be surprised if ESXi quickly becomes the most frequently used virtualization host in the data center – SMB or Enterprise.