Feb 13 2008 8:48PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
network equipment,
IT,
Telecom
An IBM study of telecommunications predicts that operators will be less focused on simple revenue growth or cost reduction and more on business model transformation in the coming five years. This harmonizes with our own survey, if one considers that “business model transformation” means redirecting business focus on different activities. One import of the shift that IBM focuses on is that this almost certainly involves more IT focus than pure network equipment focus, which we believe strongly to be true. This is likely another datapoint validating Cisco’s software shift, and it shows other vendors the direction to take. It also raises the question of whether IBM might either acquire or partner more strongly with a network vendor for service provider networking.
Feb 12 2008 2:39PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Telecom,
Motorola,
Alcatel-Lucent,
Mobile
Regarding the Alcatel-Lucent/NEC deal and the rumored Motorola-Nortel deal, these developments are symptoms of the angst in the mobile infrastructure market, the slowing of investment in infrastructure that is accompanying a lack of convincing growth in ARPU, and concerns about regulatory shifts and voice pricing. The vendors are looking for something to hang their future revenue model on, as well as to reduce costs and pull back their exposure to the mobile market. More of this sort of thing, and other activities related to the overall mobile infrastructure challenges, can be expected through this year and into 2009.
Dec 12 2007 5:07PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Telecom,
Mobile,
Wireless broadband
AT&T has semi-affirmed an open wireless strategy, not going as far as Verizon but clearly going far enough to show that it feels the pressure. The company notes that GSM phones are compatible across networks through a SIM card, which offers some handset portability, but falls short of the complete open-if-certified model Verizon plans. We believe the AT&T comments reflect the reality that the mobile walled garden was breaking down under pressure from regulators, Google saw that and launched Android and OHA, and the operators are now responding, but more to the regulators than to Google. This is important because it likely means the regulatory pace of opening wireless will accelerate in 2008 given relative lack of operator pressure. The comments came as AT&T issued an upbeat forecast for the coming year.
Dec 4 2007 12:51PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Telecom,
IP services,
Networking
Motorola’s president, Ed Zander, stepped down and will be succeeded by Greg Brown. The company has been under pressure because of poor stock performance, and it is this that makes the departure of Mr. Zander interesting. There are many companies that Wall Street believes have not met shareholder appreciation goals, including Cisco, and the pressure for the change came as private equity companies were working with some board members and investors to break Motorola up to create several units whose combined performance would better suit shareholder goals. We believe that this kind of pressure will spawn aggressive product moves among other network companies in 2008 to prevent being fragmented.
Nov 20 2007 3:33PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Internet,
Telecom,
Video Adapter
A study predicts that the unbridled downloading of content will increase Internet and broadband access traffic to the point where serious slowdowns could occur by 2010, and an investment of nearly $150B would be required to fix the problem. The exact numbers and dates here may require some justification, but the overall problem cited is real. The challenge with the current Internet model is that there is no financial back-pressure against multiplying traffic, which also means that there is no incremental revenue associated with that traffic. The pure over-the-top model risks a separation of “return” from “investment” and that means that even if these numbers are true there may be little or no incentive for the operators to spend the kind of dollars suggested. The suggestion that “something must be done” may be valid, but there has to be a commercial framework created that permits investment or nothing will be done.
Nov 16 2007 2:10PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Cabling,
Telecom,
Video Adapter
Verizon has asked the Multimedia over Coax Alliance (MoCA) to work on raising the maximum broadband capacity of MoCA to 400 Mbps, a move that may signal Verizon’s interest in using MoCA to distribute video and broadband to multiple homes from a single remote. All operators, (even Verizon whose territory is dense and valuable) will find a significant portion of households non-economical for FTTH, and changes to MoCA to provide headroom would allow Verizon to use cable to increase the cost efficiency of its FiOS delivery where subscriber density and/or ARPU are lower.
Nov 15 2007 3:10PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
OSS,
Telecom
Oracle is launching a major telco OSS initiative based on conformance with the Telemanagement Forum (TMF) SID data model and architecture. The move is an evolution of Oracle’s growing interest in the carrier market, but it also represents a key step in its competition with IBM and perhaps for the industry as well. The Oracle OSS model includes the ability to import information from other information systems, but it also integrates many of what would ordinarily be seen as enterprise applications, such as ERP. This increased focus on business applications for OSS processes is reflective of the TMF view but also tends to favor software players like Oracle against middleware/hardware players like IBM. For the industry the move likely means much greater service provider focus on OSS processes, since the giants of the industry are now contending with each other in that space and elevating their issues to be visible to senior management. We believe this will put additional pressure on network equipment vendors to take some stand in the OSS and service management space,or risk being marginalized under the software umbrella of others like Oracle.
Nov 13 2007 3:25PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
MPLS,
Carrier Ethernet,
Telecom
Hammerhead Systems has announced a service-based PBT (Provider Backbone Transport) strategy that adds the MEF E-LAN and E-Tree connection models to the traditional PBT E-Line model. The move is the first in the industry to aim PBT directly at creating retail services rather than at managing traffic and failure modes. Hammerhead also announced a partnership with Soapstone Networks, a unit of Avici, to provide flexible control plane support for the Hammerhead products. We believe this is an important step in evolving PBT to serve a key mission in both metro infrastructure and service infrastructure, and for the first time it gives some credence to the PBT-versus-MPLS battle that has raged in the media.
Nov 1 2007 1:53PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Telecom,
Mobile,
Wireless broadband,
WiMax
Sprint Nextel has turned in another bad quarter with net dropping by 77%. The problem appears to be the loss of high-spend customers who prefer the coverage of rivals AT&T and Verizon. Sprint was perhaps the largest of the wireless carriers to rely on low-quality, bad-credit customers for growth, and the strategy has now backfired as these customers fail to show ARPU growth, or even outright default on payments. Another issue of course is the lack of branded multi-play options; Sprint has no TV and no wireline strategy. We do not think there is any chance that Sprint can stand alone for long; the question is who might acquire them. National footprint is less valuable to cable companies who don’t have that footprint for wireline, but Sprint is the only provider who could cover a major MSO’s territory, and FMC could provide symbiosis for a player like Comcast. The problem with the MSO buyer is the low ROI of Sprint. The other option is T-Mobile, a unit of DT, or one of the major wireless carriers. A T-Mobile deal would likely gain approval; we doubt the FCC or FTC would approve a buy by Verizon or AT&T. Sprint may be driven by its problems to become the most aggressive WiMAX player; only something like a major WiMAX success could save it as an independent. There are also more rumors on Sprint and Google’s “gPhone”, but we don’t think that would be enough to turn Sprint around.
