Jun 5 2008 5:59PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Telecom,
Mobile,
Wireless broadband,
AT&T,
Verizon
Verizon is in advanced talks with Alltel, aimed at acquiring the mobile player. The move would make Verizon the largest mobile operator in the U.S. and a more effective competitor to AT&T. It also signals yet again the shift in the mobile market. Consolidation is not a move that is undertaken in a dynamic and growing market, but rather in one that is already facing commoditization. France Telecom has also announced negotiations to acquire Swedish phone company TeliaSonera, a move that would create the EU’s largest operator. All consolidation moves are aimed at creating economies of scale, and in FT’s case, these are targeted initially at operations costs and core network costs, since access networks are not generally overlapping and don’t generate any real consolidation economies. In the case of Alltel, we believe there will be a net reduction in mobile spending.
May 23 2008 12:39PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
service delivery platform,
OSS,
Telecom
The TM Forum (TMF) meeting in Nice this year seemed to show that the body is becoming more relevant to key issues like service delivery platforms (SDPs), content, and even advertising, but that the vendors involved in the process are lagging in their productization of these advances. The product announcements at the meeting were pedestrian and vendors are often defensive in their role in working activity, demonstrating a desire to direct the processes to the benefit of their companies in the near term. We believe that the programs will win out, since both the survival of the body and the support of the network operators and service providers that buy the systems and software will depend on relevance to current market needs.
May 16 2008 9:16PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Alcatel-Lucent,
Telecom
Alcatel-Lucent is asking shareholders to amend the rules for dismissing the CEO or chairman, which would make it easier for the company to shed current CEO Pat Russo. Russo’s position has been deteriorating with the company’s stock price and financial performance, and many inside ALU and outside believe that a major shakeup in management, needed to improve the company’s position, would have to start with Russo. We’ve noted for some time that Russo was less than the ideal candidate for the times, but one challenge that ALU would face should she be removed is whether anyone, at this time, could do much better. While Alcatel-Lucent has enormous strategic strengths and a strong customer position, it has also created a somewhat dysfunctional organization with the merger, and much of the strategic thinking that characterized the company in the past has been diluted by a combination of organizational change and tactical focus. We believe there are steps ALU could take to recover its position, and even to do so within a year, but they would be bold steps of the type that neither a sales-driven CEO like Russo nor a new figure in the role would be likely to take.
May 2 2008 2:55PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
software-as-a-service,
IP services,
Telecom
Network operators at a UK software event talked about more aggressive plans to focus on software-driven network services and features, and included goals of delivering software modules as elements or units of basic service functionality. This vision mirrors what we have heard in private dialogs and public presentations alike, beginning almost 18 months ago, but there are more public articulations of the view today than there have been in the past. Some operators are reportedly avid supporters of Web 2.0 (BT included) and others (like Telstra) are more skeptical. We believe that despite all of the talk here, there is actually relatively little real progress in transforming operator business models to a more software-driven, partner-developer-focused, form.
Apr 4 2008 4:55PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Open source,
Networking,
Telecom
We have launched an open source project to develop service logic execution environments (SLEEs) and service management execution environments (SMEEs) for NGN services. The initiative is called “ExperiaSphere,” and we are now actively seeking contributors and partners in the process. We’ve established a website wiki (www.experiasphere.wikispaces.com) for this new venture, and we invite our clients and those who read this blog to review the material there from time to time as the concept develops. Some coding is already started for this activity, and we expect to be making media announcements in May.
Feb 13 2008 8:48PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
network equipment,
IT,
Telecom
An IBM study of telecommunications predicts that operators will be less focused on simple revenue growth or cost reduction and more on business model transformation in the coming five years. This harmonizes with our own survey, if one considers that “business model transformation” means redirecting business focus on different activities. One import of the shift that IBM focuses on is that this almost certainly involves more IT focus than pure network equipment focus, which we believe strongly to be true. This is likely another datapoint validating Cisco’s software shift, and it shows other vendors the direction to take. It also raises the question of whether IBM might either acquire or partner more strongly with a network vendor for service provider networking.
Feb 12 2008 2:39PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Telecom,
Motorola,
Alcatel-Lucent,
Mobile
Regarding the Alcatel-Lucent/NEC deal and the rumored Motorola-Nortel deal, these developments are symptoms of the angst in the mobile infrastructure market, the slowing of investment in infrastructure that is accompanying a lack of convincing growth in ARPU, and concerns about regulatory shifts and voice pricing. The vendors are looking for something to hang their future revenue model on, as well as to reduce costs and pull back their exposure to the mobile market. More of this sort of thing, and other activities related to the overall mobile infrastructure challenges, can be expected through this year and into 2009.
Dec 12 2007 5:07PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Telecom,
Mobile,
Wireless broadband
AT&T has semi-affirmed an open wireless strategy, not going as far as Verizon but clearly going far enough to show that it feels the pressure. The company notes that GSM phones are compatible across networks through a SIM card, which offers some handset portability, but falls short of the complete open-if-certified model Verizon plans. We believe the AT&T comments reflect the reality that the mobile walled garden was breaking down under pressure from regulators, Google saw that and launched Android and OHA, and the operators are now responding, but more to the regulators than to Google. This is important because it likely means the regulatory pace of opening wireless will accelerate in 2008 given relative lack of operator pressure. The comments came as AT&T issued an upbeat forecast for the coming year.
Dec 4 2007 12:51PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Telecom,
IP services,
Networking
Motorola’s president, Ed Zander, stepped down and will be succeeded by Greg Brown. The company has been under pressure because of poor stock performance, and it is this that makes the departure of Mr. Zander interesting. There are many companies that Wall Street believes have not met shareholder appreciation goals, including Cisco, and the pressure for the change came as private equity companies were working with some board members and investors to break Motorola up to create several units whose combined performance would better suit shareholder goals. We believe that this kind of pressure will spawn aggressive product moves among other network companies in 2008 to prevent being fragmented.
