IP advertising

Microblogging: Trouble for network bandwidth?

Twitter, the “What are you doing” less-than-texting concept, is gaining a lot of buzz, users and funding. Monetizing any social network has proved difficult, and Twitter’s simple approach makes it harder than usual to see how ads might work there, but it still raises a troubling question for networks. Is the real service of the future more signaling than bandwidth? Clearly you can’t be twittering video stuff to each other; and few people have the time for an activity that must occur regularly and also consumes a lot of capacity.

If casual social microblogging is the prototype of future services, then network bandwidth and bandwidth production could be in deep trouble. We believe that the telco side of the market needs to be thinking about how to make casual bit-intensive activities as attractive as short text messages and blogs, or face some unpleasant consequences.

Golden Google: Signs of reality?

Business Week has joined other publications and sources in noting that Google may be experiencing the signs of decay in its basic click-through ad model. Google’s stock sunk when its reported clicks dropped in January, and investors began to worry whether the Google model was recession-proof. We think that click ads have their place, but we’ve continually noted that the majority of ad spending today (which exceeds $700 billion worldwide) is directed at models that don’t translate well into clicks. This isn’t to say that online advertising could not, at some point, take over for virtually all ad fulfillment—it likely can. However, the click model isn’t going to be the way to get there by itself, and the industry needs to address the question of what kind of flexible online model will work in the long run.

Microsoft’s Yahoo bid

Microsoft has offered to buy Yahoo, a move that clearly indicates it believes Google to be a threat, and also that Google may be vulnerable. The move comes after a slower-than-expected quarterly growth rate from Google and a better-than-expected result from Yahoo (though the results didn’t help the stock). This action will clearly raise a lot of regulatory interest, but it is believed that regulators are already concerned about Google’s power in online search and advertising and might give the deal a nod. We think this is an indication that the web search and advertising market will be much more competitive in 2008 and that M&A by both parties is now more likely.