Fixed-mobile convergence

BT sends signal on future voice services

A securities analyst has reported that BT may be slow-rolling 21CN and may in particular be rethinking its notion of migrating from TDM/PSTN voice to VoIP, at least in the near term. The information came out as it related to the impact that a VoIP cutback might have on Sonus. Obviously it could be significant.

What could be more significant is why this might happen. On one hand, the TDM plant is more depreciated than ever, and so barriers to replacement are falling. Yet there’s nothing as cheap as something you own that has no residual value to write off against your top line. Balanced against this is that operating costs for aging equipment typically grow. So at some point, you must assume BT would have to change.

The most logical starting point here is that it makes no sense to do something that involves TDM-to-IP conversion; you are forced to invest in the gateways. But if you have any TDM circuits, you can’t avoid that. Thus, we think that the likely issue here is a migration to packet voice for wireline and wireless, eliminating circuit technology in one sweep.

That would imply, in our view, that BT might synchronize three things before moving forward: 4G/LTE, FMC/femtocells and wireline migration to VoIP in some form. The question is what form. There are indicators that a P2P voice model, or at any rate something other than a SIP model, might be cheaper to deploy. Given Skype would likely offer voice services on any OTT-ready smartphone and over all home broadband, it makes no sense to spend a lot on your own voice program; you will have to match the Skype price or lose.

T-Mobile to shake up prices; pressure mobile market

T-Mobile may be about to launch the Great Mobile Price War, with dramatic consequences for the whole market. The company is expected to announce a $50 per month unlimited usage plan, undercutting competitors by half and potentially further pressuring the monetization model for mobile services.

The issue here is a familiar one: Feature differentiation in voice and mobile services has not been successful in luring customers, and so price is the only option. Generally those with smaller market shares and thus more to gain are early movers in price cuts, and T-Mobile fits that mold.

If the company also links in premiums related to its FMC offering, the result could be to force operators to reduce costs and advance their FMC plans. That, we believe, might actually hurt 4G, IMS and traditional approaches simply because it constrains ROI and focuses on shorter-term objectives.

Verizon and AT&T planning FMC transitions this year

Verizon has discontinued its Voicewing VoIP service, a move that some find contradictory to the earlier introduction of “the Hub” a VoIP phone, and Verizon’s femtocell announcement made this week. It’s actually the first logical step in the Verizon evolution.

Voicewing’s features and price points were wrong for the new service, and Verizon is getting out from under it now, as it prepares for the new positioning. We expect both AT&T and Verizon to launch similar “carrot” VoIP services to draw users from TDM as the end-of-life problem for switches approaches.

The big move will be the FMC transition, which both companies expect to make by mid-year, possibly as early as March. This shift will create significant changes for the market, but the biggest changes relating to content delivery network(CDN) and cloud deployment are yet to come.

Verizon “Hub” VoIP to be FMC flagship

Verizon will be launching a VoIP product, “the Hub”, that will also be the flagship of its FMC and likely femtocell position. The new product is designed to deal with the end-of-life issues facing TDM voice and to provide a lower-cost way of offering voice services without risking loss of customers to other providers or to free Internet systems.

Verizon will be using integration with Verizon Wireless services and management of all voice calling from a single device as the kickers. All of this proves that telecom providers are looking at the service layer for their solutions; nobody believes Verizon will build out IP infrastructure for this. It will simply ride on capacity that’s already there.

Metro and access drive ‘09 deployment focus

It is becoming increasingly clear that 2009 will see the most action in the metro and access space. Worldwide, operators are looking very hard at FMC and femtocells, and we believe that there will be some deployments even in the US by 2H09.

There are also a number of competitive initiatives from competitive access providers aimed at Ethernet services and enterprise customers, attempting to play off the corporate desire to gain headroom in access to leverage with later tactical purchases of services.

 Our research is showing that worldwide focus on infrastructure spending will be strongly in the access/metro direction in 2009 and even in 2010.

IBM focuses on enterprise mobile applications

The boom in enterprise use of smartphones and the fact that carriers are anxious to promote business customers’ use of data services combines to make the space an attractive target for IBM, not as a provider of equipment but as a facilitator of mobile enterprise applications.

The latest offerings from IBM include tools to let mobile users get easy access to applications from the road, a Citrix-like capability. We believe that mobile enterprise application opportunity will be a major driver behind U.S. operators’ FMC plans as well.

Fixed mobile convergence makes global progress

T-Mobile is launching its broadband voice @Home service throughout the US, which prepares them for an agressive FMC position. French telecom carriers are also expected to push harder on FMC and wireline broadband expansion as the consolidation in the market finally draws to a close, but that we believe is mirroring a worldwide trend.

Consolidation hasn’t been holding other projects back, it’s simply been a safer early response to declining revenue per bit. We believe that operators worldwide are preparing for a “transformation test” around FMC, broadband services, partnerships with Internet companies and developers, and other new areas. They’ll fund what works and cease funding what does not, and this could result in some pockets of spending and reductions as everyone takes the measure of their market. We think the situation will be more predictable in 2009 than in 2010 through 2012, when only some successful revenue initiatives will drive spending growth in service provider infrastructure.

Verizon backs LiMo

Verizon’s backing of LiMo is being perceived increasingly as a shot across Google’s bow, and also something that may be linked with an operator shift toward FMC and a more software-driven mobile strategy that moves away from IMS. The latter issue is, we believe, an important one for the industry, since any open platform strategy like LiMo or Android will devalue the network if no features are hosted there; everything becomes “over the top” by necessity.

Verizon open handset policy could promote loyalty

Verizon Wireless is launching its “open handset” strategy, a move that may have more impact on cellular voice pricing than its cap plan did a short time ago. Under the new program, handset makers can certify against what Verizon says will be minimal requirements and then sell directly to consumers, who will have to sign up for Verizon service but would not be required to sign service contracts. We hear that the non-contract services will be pricier than contracts offered, but that contract prices sans phone will likely be better. This will create additional slide in wireless cost and, we believe, further reduce infrastructure investment by wireless operators until an alternative revenue model is validated. We also believe it will promote FMC as a means of securing loyalty that was previously cemented through handset deals.

T-Mobile takes VoIP/wireless integration step

T-Mobile has announced it will be offering a limited trial of an unlimited VoIP calling service to broadband customers of any sort for $10 per month plus the cost of the equipment ($50). The new service may be a step toward integration of home voice services and wireless voice using dual-mode handsets, something T-Mobile has also pioneered. This is likely to create a price war in VoIP and may also hasten the FMC evolution of US providers, which will bring the femtocell/WiFi debate to a head.