Apr 1 2008 1:39PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
FTTH,
Cable,
Triple play services,
Video
The cable companies are taking the threat of FiOS seriously and promoting technologies that are more suitable for deep fiber and FTTH in their own plants. The activity is concentrated in what is called “RFoG” or RF over Glass, meaning mechanisms to perform the opto-electrical transformation from optical delivery of multicast RF to the CATV plant that already wires the homes. We are hearing that the idea is not to go with fiber to the home despite reports to the contrary, but rather to take more of a fiber-to-the-curb approach, wiring perhaps a dozen homes at the maximum into a CATV span off an RFoG fiber plant. Verizon has been looking at a similar notion of using a remote and MoCA to run cable into the home to reduce fiber provisioning costs in areas where the ARPU won’t justify true FTTH. We believe that there will be more and more outside plant “wiring” using a combination of fiber and coax, even among the carriers.
Feb 29 2008 2:19PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Broadband,
Cable,
Verizon,
Video
Cablevision reported better numbers, best of the major cable TV providers, and a sharp reduction in capex. Capex as a percent of revenues has dropped from over 16% (about what the US RBOCs spend) through 13% to slightly more than 11%. All of this suggests that the firm is taking a price-war model stance in competition with FiOS versus a feature stance, which is what competitor Comcast is taking. Cablevision had little to say about advances like DOCSIS 3.0, which would let cable spans increase their broadband speed to FiOS levels. Note that cable broadband is more “shared” than DSL or FiOS and thus raw speed numbers are not necessarily indicative of relative observed performance. We think the capex ratio shift here is the important element; a “successful” cable competitor is one that lowers capex-to-sales below RBOC levels, which means that the RBOCs can outspend the cable companies in capital improvements. Thus, ironically, innovation in access networking must come from the “conservative” carriers.
Jan 4 2008 8:59PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Ip/tv,
Broadband,
Optical Networking,
Cable,
IP services,
Triple play services
Verizon’s FiOS plans in 2008 include obtaining some franchises in major metro centers and increasing its HD channel count to 150, both of which are likely to cause further angst for the cable companies. In the former area, Verizon faces the issue of efficient delivery to multiple dwelling units (MDUs), a technical step that it’s been working to resolve through the use of in-building fiber or MoCA cable. The latter step is simply a matter of getting the business relationships in place, since FiOS has ample capacity to deliver virtually any number of HD channels. The current Comcast-satellite war over who has the most HD will be moot when Verizon gets its full complement of channels. All of this will be fueled in part by the digital transition that is scheduled for mid-2009. The coupons for customer conversion for over-the-air sets limited to analog tuning will launch shortly, and the campaign to prepare the market is expected to create a major surge in HDTV sales in 2008 and 1H09, making the question of who has the most HD channels an important marketing point.
Dec 31 2007 10:13PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
capital expense,
Cisco,
Cable
Lower prices on cable modem termination system ports are likely in 2008, and this often means that the cable companies are putting pressure on the vendors with advance notice of procurements. The changes in pricing will come with some capability to re-architect the downstream bandwidth to the home, allowing either standard DOCSIS 2.0 rates up to about 15 Mbps or DOCSIS 3.0 rates as high as 100 Mbps. The former is more likely to deploy here in the US. A big push by cable players in 2008 would benefit Cisco significantly and would likely drive cable capex higher, to win the MSOs more Wall Street ire.
Nov 16 2007 2:10PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Cable,
Telecom,
Video Adapter
Verizon has asked the Multimedia over Coax Alliance (MoCA) to work on raising the maximum broadband capacity of MoCA to 400 Mbps, a move that may signal Verizon’s interest in using MoCA to distribute video and broadband to multiple homes from a single remote. All operators, (even Verizon whose territory is dense and valuable) will find a significant portion of households non-economical for FTTH, and changes to MoCA to provide headroom would allow Verizon to use cable to increase the cost efficiency of its FiOS delivery where subscriber density and/or ARPU are lower.
Oct 31 2007 8:31PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Cable,
Telecom,
Regulations
The FCC voted today on a number of matters that impact the competition between cable companies and telcos, and it appears that the telcos won the day. In one action, the FCC adopted a Second Report and Order that further clarifies the right of new market entrants to obtain fair process in franchising negotiations. The cable companies have been using their lobbying to stall franchise agreements for the telcos in many areas, and while this second step does not make it impossible to stall further, it does make it likely that tactics to delay franchising will invite FCC action and perhaps even further steps. Second, the FCC has ruled that agreements by owners of multi-tenant housing (apartments, etc.) cannot enter into exclusive deals with a single video provider. The MDU order was unanimous but the Second Report and Order on franchising split along party lines. The number of such splits has encouraged some commentators to suggest that if the administration changes with the next presidential election in the US (which seems likely at the moment) these issues could be reversed. We note that the FCC is essentially a court, with less latitude to reverse itself than a purely administrative body, and that in many cases the split vote reflects less an issue of fact than one of contribution balance. Congress, for example, changed hands and yet the stance of Congress on telecom has not changed since. The FCC also voted to require VoIP providers to support local number portability.
Oct 24 2007 2:08PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Cable,
Broadband,
Triple play services
Verizon will be making a symmetrical version of broadband available to consumers at a very reasonable price in a move that seems certain to be a slap at the architectural limits of cable broadband. The FiOS symmetrical offer will provide 20 Mbps in both directions for $65 per month, according to AP reports, for customers with an annual phone contract. The reason this is likely to cause angst in the cable world is that cable broadband cannot offer that kind of uplink speed at all without moving to a completely new plant architecture at considerable cost. It’s also true that AT&T’s U-verse architecture can’t match this service. Verizon, by eliminating restrictions on the uplink data path, could well create a market for consumer videoconferencing and P2P that would be nearly impossible for competitors to match.
Oct 20 2007 1:32AM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
Peer2Peer,
Cable,
IP services
Comcast has finally admitted to taking steps under its usage agreement to block or interfere with P2P traffic, at least that of BitTorrent. This is perhaps the first instance of a large access provider using their UA this way, but as we have noted before, it is inevitable that access carriers take steps to manage the use of their network, particularly where that use might interfere with other customers in the short term (by congesting the shared cable uplink bandwidth in this case) or in the long term (by forcing upgrades to capacity that cannot provide the operator with suitable ROI to justify the investment). We believe this process will be widespread by next year, and it is very unlikely that the courts would find it an abuse. In 2008 we would expect to see the first examples of operators providing premium handling as an extra-cost option, and this is likely a step in that direction. We also believe that premium for-charge service options are a good thing, since they link increased performance to increased carrier revenue and thus justify the buildout at the business level.
Oct 12 2007 8:58PM GMT
Posted by: Tom Nolle
voice,
Cable,
Wireless broadband
CableLabs is releasing a new version of the PacketCable specification used for voice services over cable. The 2.0 release will include support for business features and also support for IMS-based FMC, presumably to support either a cable company push into wireless or an MVNO relationship with a provider like Sprint. The move is likely to be linked to the recent reports of FMC activity at AT&T and Verizon, and it may thus be an indicator of a broad industry trend toward convergence of wireless and wireline voice. As we have noted many times, however, it is far from clear that such a convergence would necessarily create IMS momentum.
