Uncommon Wisdom

Nov 21 2007   1:53PM GMT

Carrier Ethernet creates equipment market shifts

Tom Nolle Tom Nolle Profile: Tom Nolle

Research is confirming what many have noticed anecdotally: Cisco, Juniper and Nortel are gaining in the carrier router-switch market and Alcatel-Lucent is declining. The shift is likely driven in large part by the shifts toward Carrier Ethernet deployment from traditional routing, a shift that Nortel stands to gain the most from because of PBT. Nortel showed the largest gains, too. Juniper just announced an Ethernet product, and it showed gains as well. Cisco has an Ethernet line and had a strong showing. While Alcatel-Lucent has Ethernet products, it has been submerging them in its IPTV positioning. We believe this shift will not stop at the end of the year, and that it will put the greatest pressure on Alcatel-Lucent. But it will also pressure Juniper since that company has no PBT capability in its Ethernet product. PBT’s features and perceived future value are the real drivers of the change, make no mistake.

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