Uncommon Wisdom: A SearchTelecom.com blog:

February, 2008

Feb 8 2008   2:26PM GMT

Alcatel-Lucent losses indicate management change?



Posted by: Tom Nolle
Alcatel-Lucent, Ip/tv, Metro Area Networks

Alcatel-Lucent posted another loss, warned on the current quarter, and suspended dividend payments, all of which will almost certainly lead to a management shakeup. The company is suffering under a mobile spending slump that has also hurt some of its competitors, and is unlikely to lift for the balance of 2008. Despite the publicized success of its IPTV strategies, it has also been unable to make the revenue shortage up with broadband success, and there is now indication that it’s shifting strategies to a more generalized access and metro strategy that would offer lower-cost deployment. Recent emphasis on DSL and PON are examples of this trend. We believe the company has little chance of pulling out of the current slump in 2008 even with a management change, and that some major restructuring and cost-cutting will be forthcoming

Feb 7 2008   3:19PM GMT

Cisco earnings show order slowdown



Posted by: Tom Nolle
Juniper Networks, Cisco, Routers

Cisco reported decent numbers for the current quarter but acknowledged the slowdown in orders that we predicted for the first half of this year. The company relies on enterprises for a large chunk of revenues, and that sector is very troubled by the credit crash and consumer concerns. We believe that spending for 2008 will recover in the second half. The slowdown will have its greatest impact on network vendors with a lot of enterprise exposure, but it will also make it difficult for Juniper to get quick traction with its new EX enterprise Ethernet line.


Feb 5 2008   3:36PM GMT

Service providers increase PBT testing



Posted by: Tom Nolle
PBT, Carrier Ethernet, Metro Ethernet

Telefonica has joined the ranks of operators who acknowledge they are testing PBT. As we have indicated, 10 out of 10 of our service provider survey base is conducting or planning PBT tests, but the majority have still not made their commitment public. We believe that there will be five more public announcements of PBT activity among major national providers in 2008.


Feb 1 2008   3:46PM GMT

Microsoft’s Yahoo bid



Posted by: Tom Nolle
Regulations, Windows Computing, IP advertising

Microsoft has offered to buy Yahoo, a move that clearly indicates it believes Google to be a threat, and also that Google may be vulnerable. The move comes after a slower-than-expected quarterly growth rate from Google and a better-than-expected result from Yahoo (though the results didn’t help the stock). This action will clearly raise a lot of regulatory interest, but it is believed that regulators are already concerned about Google’s power in online search and advertising and might give the deal a nod. We think this is an indication that the web search and advertising market will be much more competitive in 2008 and that M&A by both parties is now more likely.