predictive analysis

Predictive modeling - rolling the dice in the real world

“Predictive modeling allows for more informed marketing decisions and more effective resource allocation. Instead of blasting the same offers to everyone, you can target multiple offers by segment or focus on particular customer groups based on current or potential value.” Colleen Ryan, Predictive Modeling: Turning Data Into Insight

Today’s WhatIs.com Word of the Day is predictive modeling. It’ s used a lot in customer relationship management (CRM) and enterprise resource planning (ERP).

Colleen Ryan does an excellent job explaining how predictive modeling works. While it might seem like voodoo, it’s really mathematical. Remember learning about probability and outcome back in sixth grade? Well, in the real world, its not just about rolling a pair of dice.

Or maybe it is.

Maybe trying to predict outcomes of any kind is still just…gambling.

Overheard - The IT department decides what data you get to see?

“We had the data, but we did not have the information.” Forrester analyst Boris Evelson, quoting a bank CIO

Today’s WhatIs.com Word of the Day is predictive analytics. It’s the crystal ball part of business intelligence.

Pam Baker has a two-part overview on the issues facing Business Intelligence. Now that we’re in this economic mess, everyone is looking around saying “With all this data we’re collecting, why didn’t we see this coming?”

Ummm…maybe it’s because 20% of the CIOs and IT managers that Forrester polled last August said they are running six or more BI tools running on disparate systems?  Yikes!

And even worse — 75% of them said most of their reports and dashboards are created by their IT departments?  DOUBLE and TRIPLE yikes!  (See one of my favorite Paul Graham quotes.)

I’m thinking this economic downturn might be a good time to be a startup BI company — a vendor who can help business analysts connect the dots, see relationships more clearly and identify areas for growth. Definitely a vendor who makes the application simple enough that the end user can create his own reports or dashboards.  One who can bring the mythical self-service BI to life.

Maybe even a vendor who offers services on-demand, like Birst or Cloud9 Analytics. If I were a VC, it’d be something I’d be watching.