Overheard in the tech blogosphere » predictions

Overdheard – The future of the Internet according to Pew

Margaret Rouse — Mon, 22 Dec 2008 15:31:46 +0000

By 2020, the virtual world will have blended with the physical world; to speak of them as separate spheres will seem anachronistic.

Nicholas Carr, as quoted in Pew: 55% of Experts Herald Virtual Worlds and Augmented Reality in 2020

Here’s a link to the newest Pew Internet Life report.

Overheard: Intel’s predictions for the future

Margaret Rouse — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 18:07:48 +0000

I hope Intel warned the Luddites and pessimists away at the door, because the chip maker had a lot of bullish statements Thursday about its belief that computers will become smarter than humans.

Stephen Shankland, Intel touts progress toward intelligent computers

3-D printers in homes and businesses will grow 100-fold

Margaret Rouse — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:41:24 +0000

The technology lets users send a file of a 3-D design to a printer-like device that will carve the design out of a block of resin. A manufacturer can make scale models of new product designs without the expense of model makers. Or consumers can have models of the avatars they use online. Ultimately, manufacturers can consider making some components on demand without having an inventory of replacement parts. Printers priced less than $10,000 have been announced for 2008, opening up the personal and hobbyist markets.

Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organisations and Users in 2008 and Beyond

Suppliers to large enterprises will need to prove their green credentials with an audit

Margaret Rouse — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:31:39 +0000

Those organizations with strong brands are helping to forge the first wave of green sourcing policies and initiatives. These policies go well beyond minimizing direct carbon emissions or requiring suppliers to comply with local environmental regulations. For example, Timberland has launched a “Green Index” environmental rating for its shoes and boots. Home Depot is working on evaluation and audit criteria for assessing supplier submissions for its new EcoOptions product line.

Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organisations and Users in 2008 and Beyond

75% will include full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint as mandatory criteria for new PCs

Margaret Rouse — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:29:00 +0000

Most technology providers have little or no knowledge of the full life cycle energy and CO2 footprint of their products. Some technology providers have started the process of life cycle assessments, or at least were asking key suppliers about carbon and energy use in 2007 and will continue in 2008. Most others using such information to differentiate their products will start in 2009 and by 2010 enterprises will be able to start using the information as a basis for purchasing decisions. Most others will stat some level of more detailed life cycle assessment in 2008.

Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organisations and Users in 2008 and Beyond

Overheard: Gartner announces 10 future trends that IT professionals need to plan for

Margaret Rouse — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:19:19 +0000

The predictions highlight areas where executives and IT professionals need to take action in 2008. The full impact of these trends may not appear this year, but executives need to act now so that they can exploit the trends for their competitive advantage.

Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organisations and Users in 2008 and Beyond

Short version:

1) Apple will double its U.S. and Western Europe unit market share in computers.

2) 50% of traveling workers will leave their notebooks at home and use other mobile devices for Internet access.

3) 80% of all commercial software will include elements of open-source technology.

4) At least 1/3 of business application software spending will be service subscription instead of product license.

5) Early technology adopters will purchase 40% of their IT infrastructure as a service.

6) More than 1/3 of IT organizations will have environmental criteria in their top-six buying criteria for IT-related goods.

7) 75% of organizations will use “full life cycle energy” and “CO2 footprint” as mandatory hardware buying criteria.

8 ) Suppliers to large global enterprises will need to prove their green credentials with an audit in order to retain preferred supplier status.

9) End-user preferences will decide as much as half of all software, hardware and services acquisitions made by IT.

10) The number of 3-D printers in homes and businesses will grow 100-fold over 2006 levels.

More than 1/3 of IT organizations will have environmental criteria on shopping list

Margaret Rouse — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:18:47 +0000

Initially, the motivation will come from the wish to contain costs. Enterprise data centres are struggling to keep pace with the increasing power requirements of their infrastructures. And there is substantial potential to improve the environmental footprint, throughout the life cycle, of all IT products and services without any significant trade-offs in price or performance. In future, IT organisations will shift their focus from the power efficiency of products to asking service providers about their measures to improve energy efficiency.

Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organisations and Users in 2008 and Beyond

Early adopters will purchase 40% of their IT infrastructure as a service

Margaret Rouse — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:14:56 +0000

Increased high-speed bandwidth makes it practical to locate infrastructure at other sites and still receive the same response times. Enterprises believe that as service oriented architecture (SOA) becomes common “cloud computing” will take off, thus untying applications from specific infrastructure. This trend to accepting commodity infrastructure could end the traditional “lock-in” with a single supplier and lower the costs of switching suppliers. It means that IT buyers should strengthen their purchasing and sourcing departments to evaluate offerings. They will have to develop and use new criteria for evaluation and selection and phase out traditional criteria.

Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organisations and Users in 2008 and Beyond

At least one-third of business application software spending will be SaaS

Margaret Rouse — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:11:42 +0000

With software as service (SaaS), the user organisation pays for software services in proportion to use. This is fundamentally different from the fixed-price perpetual license of the traditional on-premises technology. Endorsed and promoted by all leading business applications vendors (Oracle, SAP, Microsoft) and many Web technology leaders (Google, Amazon), the SaaS model of deployment and distribution of software services will enjoy steady growth in mainstream use during the next five years.

Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organisations and Users in 2008 and Beyond

80% of all commercial software will include elements of open-source

Margaret Rouse — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 16:09:57 +0000

Many open-source technologies are mature, stable and well supported. They provide significant opportunities for vendors and users to lower their total cost of ownership and increase returns on investment. Ignoring this will put companies at a serious competitive disadvantage. Embedded open source strategies will become the minimal level of investment that most large software vendors will find necessary to maintain competitive advantages during the next five years.

Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organisations and Users in 2008 and Beyond