BlackBerry is like this Zombie, still walking, but not really alive
So Blackberry had a good quarter and it sold a few Z10s. Good for them. They’re a company that’s been down so long, looks like up to them, but don’t confuse a smidgen of success with a turn-around.
Chances are the surge is nothing more than a short-lived little burst of energy. As Zack Whittaker cleverly put it on ZDnet, they have done little more than “lived to die another day.”
Sure, it feels good to write something positive about a once dominant company that somehow defies the odds and finds its way to profitability, but that’s not what happened here. As Whittaker wrote, “[In spite of the good quarter], the picture was still pretty bleak on the top line, reporting revenue of $11.1 billion, down 40 percent year-over-year.”
That’s a precipitous drop in revenue, folks and even though many including Wayne Rash at eWeek think BlackBerry hit the requisite homerun here with the hardware and the OS, there are fundamental issues with a lack of apps.
I can say personally saw a Z10 at the Mobile World Congress last month and it has style and polish and some very neat OS features that differentiate it from the competition. In short, it was a competitive high-end phone. I walked away impressed.
But what even Rash, who gave the phone a positive review, acknowledged that its achilles’s heel could be its dearth of decent apps. You can have the best phone in the world, but if you don’t have apps, nobody is coming to your party. And that could be a huge issue for Blackberry going forward.
It could be why Larry Dignan reported on ZDNet that BlackBerry is predicted to lose money in every quarter in fiscal 2014 and only survive on its substantial cash horde, a situation that is obviously not sustainable long-term. Of course, it’s worth noting experts predicted a loss this quarter too and they were wrong. Unfortunately, even beating expectations didn’t impress investors all that much as the Wall Street Journal reported the stock dropped 0.08 percent after initially rising 10 percent on the earnings report.
The same WSJ report called a new plan by BlackBerry to distribute a range of phones a risky one. The feeling at BlackBerry is it ultimately can’t compete at the high end of the market with Apple and Samsung, so it’s aiming lower down where it might sell more phones across a range of price points in a wider variety of markets.
Regardless of the plan or the quality of Z10 or the profitable quarter, BlackBerry has been toast for a long time, they just have too much cash to lie down and die. The best they can hope for is that they have set themselves up as a more attractive takeover target.
I know it would be a nice story if they could rise up and compete again, but this isn’t a fairy tale, and no matter how good the Z10 is, it’s not saving the company. It’s too late for that.
The WSJ article reported subscriptions slid 2 percent in the latest quarterly earnings report and the stock market didn’t deal well with news as the stock price dropped 9.7 percent.
Oracle is in fact just the type of company ripe for disruption by smaller more agile ones offering the same types of services, whether database management or CRM and marketing monitoring and automation (to name just a few of the enterprise categories in which Oracle has products), customers who once turned to Oracle are turning to cheaper open source and cloud alternatives.
As an example, the Wall Street Journal article cites the price difference for Oracle’s marketing software and the similar offering from rival Salesforce.com. Oracle charges $5,795 per user license with a 10 license minimum. Salesforce.com charges $125 per user per month for a similar service with a year commitment. Any way you slice it, that’s undercutting Oracle’s offering in a big way.
Oracle faces disruption on a number of levels. As a company trying to sell hardware and enterprise software to run on it, it faces competition, not only from Salesforce and other cloud alternatives, but from open source choices like Hadoop for data analysis and cheaper cloud infrastructure providers such as Amazon Web Services.
When companies looking to cut costs look at the bottom line, Oracle faces tough going against cheaper alternatives. What’s more, after years of aggressive pricing, customers are happy to find other options.
Meanwhile, in spite of the fact that Oracle has bought a number of cloud vendors over the last several years in an attempt to move some of its offerings to the cloud, it remains at its core very much an on-premise enterprise software vendor trying to sell a stack of software at a time when IT is looking for cheaper and faster vendors.
As the WSJ article points out, Oracle has a loyal customer base, but companies looking at new offerings aren’t looking to Oracle anymore when it comes to enterprise software, not when they can find alternatives that are far more economical — and that doesn’t bode well for the long-term future of the company.
What’s more, Oracle faces the classic “innovator’s dilemma” as defined by Harvard professor Clayton Christensen. They are forced to protect their most lucrative clients, and even though they must recognize the competitive pressure from younger, faster, cheaper companies starting out at the bottom end of the market and working their way up. Yet because companies like Oracle want to protect its most lucrative customers, they can’t afford to pay attention to the lower end ones the competition is gobbling up.
Oracle isn’t going anywhere because it has a bad quarter, but it’s the third bad quarter in two years from a company that used to consistently hit its targets and could be a sign that the disruptors are having an impact.
It can try to answer the disruptive forces, but it can’t fundamentally change what it is: A large company that was created to answer an enterprise need in a different decade under different market conditions. As such, it will very likely continue to suffer a death by a 1000 cuts as disruptive forces attack it at every turn.
With so many flavors of Android, is it still a single operating system?
As Android becomes increasingly fragmented, it’s fair to ask if it’s a single operating system or many separate ones. I’m inclined to believe that it’s breaking into separate ones, but a couple of experts I spoke to think as long as generic apps run on the platform, it’s fair to call it a single platform
At the recent Mobile World Congress, I had a chance to play with the new HTC One, which was a nice piece of hardware. I’m not an Android expert by any means, but a colleague who was with me indicated HTC had gone out on its own on this one in terms of the interface and Android fans might find it confusing as a result.
Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols, a freelance technology journalist who writes frequently about open source including Android, see it differently though. He says all these flavors of Android remain essentially the same OS even though each manufacturer is putting their own stamp on it. “Android has always been fragmented. Even today there are seven–count ‘em 7–different Android variations ranging from Eclair to Jelly Bean with at least 1% of the market. But, not counting corner cases like Aliyun OS, it’s never been forked. What HTC and Samsung are doing is just adding their own special sauce on the Android goodies,” he said.
Vaughan-Nichols adds, “Now, when it becomes impossible for a third-party generic Android app. to run on those devices then we’ll have something to worry about.”
The Samsung Galaxy s4 has its own unique flavor of Android.
Rob Pegoraro, a freelance writer for USA Today and other sites, who covers Android agrees and doesn’t see it as an issue. “If you look at Android as a way to run apps, it still appears as a single platform–thanks to a lot of hard work by developers that users don’t see,” he said.
He notes, however, that for users, the look and feel could change fairly dramatically from device to device. “But if you consider it as a common interface that you only need to learn once every few years, it’s pretty much forked. You can’t count on something as basic as the back button being in the same spot on different vendors’ phones,” he explained
The problem for me is that every member of my family could have Android phones and they could all look, feel and operate completely differently. Yet they are all called the “Android” OS because at their core they are Android and run Android apps.
But Pegoraro explains it might be better to think of the different flavors in the way we think of dialects. They are the same language even though they sound a lot different. “The difference between an HTC-style Android interface and a Samsung-esque one used to be something like the difference between Boston and New York accents. Now it’s more like the gap between Cajun and Nebraskan dialects, or maybe American and British English: There’s a lot more distinct vocabulary, and you need to work more to decipher the other party’s speech at first,” he told me.
For now, Android gets counted as a single OS regardless of flavor, but you have to wonder if Samsung and HTC continue on their own path if this will continue or if at some point we will have different Android flavors counted as separate operating systems. Time will tell.
During my recent trip to Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, I got to handle a bunch of phones I had heard about, but never actually held and saw updates to some I hadn’t seen in a while. After playing with phones for a few days, I came to a couple of conclusions.
First of all, there is a lot of nice hardware out there — the BlackBerry Z10, The Nokia 920, The Motorola Droid Razr HD — and there were lots of others made with quality hardware and gorgeous displays.
There are tons of nice phones out there, but Samsung and Apple dominate the market.
Second of all, I came to the conclusion it didn’t matter how nice a phone was because the market is essentially frozen in place and the two manufacturers that rule the roost are Samsung and Apple. Too bad, so sad for everyone else.
The numbers tell a story and, it’s the two dominant players have a strong-hold on the smartphone market. I don’t have break-downs by country, but I suspect it holds pretty consistently, although there is a fight in the works for emerging markets.
ZTE announced a new phone called the ZTE Open phone, a low-end device running the open source Firefox mobile OS. I checked out the phone. It’s not great, but it’s not aimed at a market looking for greatness. The target market is young people in Latin America and to a lesser extent Spain who currently have feature phones and can’t afford smart phones. I heard Telefonica planned to sell it in Latin America for well under $100. I asked how they could make any money at that price, but nobody at the Telefonica booth could answer my question.
Nokia, not to be left out, also announced a low-end smartphone running Windows Phone 8 called the Lumia 520. It’s like a baby version of the Lumia 920. It doesn’t have the polish outside or inside of its much more expensive older sibling, but a Nokia spokesperson at the Nokia pavilion told me it’s only $129 Euro ($167 USD) off contract. That means it’s very likely free with one. According to VentureBeat, only T-Mobile will be offering this phone in the US.
All of these companies are trying desperately to break the market stronghold of Apple and Samsung. For a long time Nokia controlled the low end of the market and was the best selling brand in the world, but no longer. Nokia is going to back to its roots in a sense with this lower end Lumia (although its Asha line of phones really is much more suited to the low end of the market).
The conundrum for all these companies is that no matter how hard they try and no matter how sweet the phone looks and feels in your hands, nobody seems to pay attention — or at least not enough people to matter. No matter what the competition does, it seems they are stuck fighting for the scraps left over by Apple and Samsung.
The reality is though that half the worldwide market is still a big piece of the pie. Unfortunately after you subtract Nokia’s 5 percent share, the remaining 45.2 percent is divided among such a wide variety of players with shares so small Strategy Analytics didn’t even bother counting them. Unless somebody emerges from that pile, the numbers don’t lie and it’s harsh market. It’s Apple and Samsung’s world and everyone is just picking up their table scraps.
Photo Credit: Ron Miller. Used under CC 2.0 Share Alike/Attribution license.
Sony defined the portable device market when these were popular, but never were able to capitalize on it in MP3s or smartphones.
I’m camped out at Mobile World Congress this week and as I’ve wandered the halls of this massive conference, I’ve tried to get my hands some phones and tablets I’ve heard about. Some vendors have surprised me by the quality of their phones including Nokia and BlackBerry. Others, not so much — and then there’s HP and Sony.
These two were once mighty brands who wielded great power in the marketplace, but they never quite got mobile and as such they have been left behind. Now they appear to be a couple of brands going through the mobile motions because they pretty much have to, whether their heart is in it or not.
Sony is a particularly sad tale because if you think back to the 80s, the Sony Walkman was the first true portable device and people loved them. It was extremely hip to have one and all through the 90s, Sony was the star consumer electronics brand. I personally was very loyal to the Sony brand in those days. I had a Sony Vaio laptop, two Sony televisions and Sony stereo components.
But the Sony brand hit a bump in the road about the same time Apple came up with the iPod. Like any disrupted company, it didn’t react quickly enough to the MP3 player market, which given their Walkman market, should have been a natural fit. Instead, Sony floundered.
Today they have new Xperia line of tablets and phones. When I went to their booth the other day, I was surprised to see a big counter devoted to the press. Step in the right direction, but I noted on the counter was a big, fancy print catalogue meant to show off the features of the phone — not sure a big old full color catalogue showing off the Xperia screens is quite the right approach these days.
To its credit, Sony did give away a bunch of the phones to journalists here (I didn’t get one) . I spoke to a couple of journalist who received the phones and weren’t super impressed. Both commented that the finish on the back of the phone is quite cheap feeling and they weren’t likely to adopt it as their standard phone.
Then there’s HP, the company that makes one bad decision after another. They have gone through multiple CEOs. They’ve had many major layoffs. They appear to be a company in decline. You know the story of their first foray into tablets with webOS (which got sold to LG this week, who plans to use it for televisions), which lasted all of 45 days.
This show, they’re showing off the new $169 7- inch Android tablet. When I visited their booth they were highly disorganized, didn’t have a ready demo to show off the features of the unit and tried to discourage me from reviewing it because it wouldn’t compare well with existing units on the market. And you wonder why this company has issues?
HP’s last tablet venture lasted 45 days before it pulled the plug. There is little reason to think low-priced Android devices will do well for them.
Both of these companies, once powerful brands have both lost their way and now live on the island of misfit brands hoping a boy, girl or IT pro will come along and love them. Unfortunately for the two companies, it’s Samsung and Apple’s world now and these two are offering way too little, way too late.
For those of you who don’t remember — and HP’s foray into tablets was so brief you would be forgiven if you’ve forgotten — HP bought Palm in April, 2010 for $1.2 billion. The idea at the time was take webOS, Palm’s mobile operating environment and build an HP line of tablets and mobile phones.
It seemed like a surprisingly sound strategy. A year after purchasing Palm, HP came out with the TouchPad tablet running WebOS. There were mobile phones in the pipeline. Everything looked rosy, then a mere 45 days after releasing the first TouchPads, HP pulled the plug on the entire strategy and held a fire sale.
Since that fateful decision to axe its mobile strategy, the company has been in downward spiral. There were plans to spin off the printer and PC divisions that also fell through. There have multiple CEOs. The latest Meg Whitman has overseen a massive layoff and the company appears to be in decline.
Yet HP remains the largest PC maker in the world — for now. The problem being that PC sales are declining as tablets begin their ascension as primary computing devices. As I wrote last week in Tablets are Taking a Bite Out of the PC Market, “Last quarter Apple sold 23 million iPads, while HP — the world’s largest PC maker — sold 15m PCs.”
Even myopic HP can see that having a tablet is essential to any company’s hardware strategy these days. So more than 18 months since it gave up the last one, rumors have surfaced that HP is planning on building and marketing a high-end Android tablet. Talk about being a way too late.
First of all it’s unclear anyone would want a high-end Android tablet. Apple is already firmly entrenched at the high end of the tablet market. Microsoft is trying to offer an alternative hybrid device for even more money than the most expensive iPad. I don’t see how HP can fit into this market and find any space to operate.
It’s even more crowded at the lower end of the market where Amazon is offering the Kindle Fire HD for as low as $199. Google is offering the Nexus 7 for $199 and the Nexus 10 for as low as $399. There are countless other competitors including Lenovo and Asus offering a range of alternatives.
The problem for HP is that market is far more difficult to maneuver in than it was in 2011 and the Android market is crowded with competitors who have been doing it much longer.
Whether HP comes out with a tablet or ignores the tablet market altogether doesn’t really matter because the market has moved on, and HP like so many other decisions in recent years has waited too long and is way late to the game.
What’s more, Cook told the audience he didn’t care if the iPad sales were eating into his desktop and laptop computer sales because the future market potential for tablets was so huge, it didn’t matter.
“The projection is that this is going to triple in four years – that’s 375 million, more than the number of PCs being sold around the world. The tablet is attracting people who have never owned a PC, and people who have owned [PCs] but it wasn’t great in the experience,” The Guardian quoted him as saying.
If you doubted the ascendancy of the tablet, these numbers illustrate that it’s happening right now probably faster than anyone believed it would. When I write about these types of changes, I get comments from old-school IT pros who scoff at the idea that a tablet could replace a PC. ‘You won’t someone using an iPad to design a car,’ they tell me.
And they’re probably right. Just because the tablet is overtaking the PC, it doesn’t mean that they are full out replacing every one. If HP sold 15 million PCs last quarter, surely that’s still a big number. But tablets have proven to be able to do a lot of tasks, we used to use PCs for or schlepped our laptops along.
And Apple isn’t alone in the market of course. Microsoft is trying its hand at the market, the same one where BlackBerry, HP and others have tried before and failed. Many believe Microsoft’s hybrid approach may be attractive to corporate workers, but the jury is still very much out on that one in spite of reports of selling out the Surface Pro upon release last week. Amazon is selling a fair number and there are a number of other Android tablet makers such as Samsung that appear to be doing doing quite well — to the extent we can know of course.
Cook was skeptical of projected market share numbers that get bandied about by various firms, and which supposedly show his company’s market share dropping under 50 percent. That’s because as he points out, his is the only company that’s actually announcing the number of units sold. But if you’re selling the kind of volume Apple is selling of these devices, you have to feel pretty good about your market position, regardless of what IDC, Gartner or Forrester has to say about it.
If Microsoft does sell 200 million units as a Forrester report projected recently, it could be at the expense of Apple, Google or Amazon or could be part of what appears to be an expanding tablet market where there is certainly room for more than one dominant player. I’ll go on record as saying I’m skeptical about the 200 million number — and I’ll believe it when I see it.
For now, whatever brand you prefer — and it’s entirely possible you have different tablets for different roles — it’s clear that the age of the tablet is here, and while the PC is not going extinct any time soon, its days of dominance might be behind us.
Cloud storage has gotten so ridiculously cheap, it’s hard to see why you wouldn’t be using it.
We are in a golden age of cloud storage. We can buy unlimited backup on BitCasa for $99 a year or 10 GB for free. There’s also Dropbox and Sky Drive and Box and Google Drive and iCloud and Amazon — all offer a varying amount of free space and attractive pricing packages if you want more. There are so many options for such low prices, it boggles the mind.
You want local storage, you say? We can get a 2TB portable drive for around $100. .
Yet even with the low cost of local storage, we never seem to have enough do we? Whether we are an individual or an enterprise, we always seem to fill whatever capacity we have.
I have been buying computers for a long time and each time I’ve bought one, the hard drive had ever more capacity, and I would think — I’ll never fill up that much hard drive space — only to find I did. I’m sure many IT pros have thought the same thing with their storage arrays. There must be some kind of law like Moore’s Law around chip capacity that we will always fill whatever hard drive capacity we have.
That’s the beauty of the cloud. It’s like that old Jay Leno Dorito’s ad — “Don’t worry. We’ll make more. ” It will always scale for you. You don’t have to worry about it because the cloud provider does. I know personally I have at least half a dozen cloud storage accounts. My stuff is spread across the digital heavens because it’s so darn cheap.
Just this week, Bitcasa came out of Beta with a new storage product that provides unlimited storage for $99 a year. I find it hard to believe they can continue to offer unlimited storage for so little, but for now, that’s the price. What’s more, it has client-side encryption, so they have no idea what’s on there and claim there’s no way for them to know — even under threat of subpoena.
Even the most paranoid among us has to like that.
So sure at 2TB for $100 you could back up some stuff and have it locally where it can never be at the mercy of ‘The Man’ –whether the government or the service provider — but when you can get unlimited encrypted storage for $99 a year, that’s gotten to the point where it’s pretty darn hard to resist. And you can get your files anywhere from any device , as well as mark files for offline access if you know you’re not going to have a WiFi connection.
It’s the golden age of cloud storage. You would foolish not take advantage.
BlackBerry might have scored, but the game was over long ago. (c) Can Stock Photo
When BlackBerry released the BlackBerry 10 line of phones today, it reminded me very much of a basketball player who made a basket after buzzer had sounded, the competition was in the locker room and the stands were empty. Nice try, but it didn’t count.
First the good news. These appear to be really nice phones and VentureBeat reports they have lined up all the big names for apps including Skype, Facebook, Box, Evernote and Twitter. They even had the good sense to change the company from Research in Motion, a name that never made sense to me, and officially call the compnay BlackBerry. A name change was overdue, although they might have broken completely with the past and tried something new.
Today’s announcement involved two phones, the Q10 and Z10. The former is a more traditional flat-front glass smartphone without a hardware keyboard, The latter has the external hardware keyboard we are used to seeing on BlackBerry devices. These aren’t your father’s BlackBerry phones though. They are slick and beveled and actually pretty.
And the Z10′s Time Shift Mode feature is a huge differentiator. It’s like a DVR for your camera, letting you shift back in time to get the shot you might have missed by waiting too long. It sounds futuristic and cool, something you don’t normally associate with BlackBerry, although I imagine you need a lot of hard drive space to accommodate that kind of ability. You can see how it works in the short YouTube video below:
The bad news is in spite of getting all the major players to build apps, and coming up with some phones that dazzle, BlackBerry has been in free fall for over three years. It went from a company that controlled more than 40 percent of US smartphone market share in 2010 to an also-ran by the time they made this announcement. By November of 2012, the most recent data available, comScore was reporting RIM, now BlackBerry, controlled a mere 8.3 percent. That is a precipitous loss of market, and when your brand takes a hit like that, it’s hard to recover.
The company may attract the few advocates it has left, but it’s going to be very difficult to break the iOS-Android stronghold on the market.
And I’m not the only one who thinks so. Adam Leach, principal analyst at Ovum said in a statement that he was also impressed with the platform and the phones, but essentially, it didn’t matter. “Ovum believes that despite a well-designed Blackberry 10 platform, that will certainly attract short-term interest from existing users the company will struggle to appeal to a wider audience and in the long-term will become a niche player in the smartphone market.”
And BlackBerry isn’t helping itself as FierceWireless reports by delaying the US release until March. When you wait too long to get your updated product to market, the last thing you want to do is get your potential market hyped up and then make them wait 6 weeks. It’s the kind of dumb move that has hurt this company in the past.
I give BlackBerry a lot of credit though for doing what it needed to do. The problem is, they’re about 18 months to two years too late to the game. They made the shot they needed to. But while they stood by the basket with hands thrust in the air, it simply didn’t matter. The game was over long ago.
When you look at successful organizations over the last decade, it’s hard to find two better examples than the New England Patriots and Apple. But it seems that their success comes at a price. At a certain point, people begin to hate them for their success and actually long to see them fail.
But these two organizations seem to have a lot more in common than their recent success. Much like Apple, The Patriots experienced a lot of failure before their current 12 year run of success. Then they made a key move at the top hiring Bill Belichick as head coach in 2000. Apple made the key move bringing back Steve Jobs in 1997. In both cases, with a demanding and highly intelligent leader at the the helm, the organizations thrived.
Now many years later, success has spawned success. For the Patriots it’s been 10 division titles, 7 trips to the AFC Championship game, 5 trips to the Super Bowl, 3 Super Bowl Championships. For Apple, it’s been one home run after another. First the iPod, then the iPhone, then the iPad.
These two organizations both demand excellence from their employees. They both value silence and neither one gives the opposition an edge ever. They are tight-knit and well managed and they have a methodology and they stick to it because it works.
After the Patriots lost last weekend, the level of vitriol on social networks was palpable. Some people were happy to stomp on New England and take glee in their loss.
Same goes for Apple. They sold a record number of iPhones, yet it wasn’t as many as Wall Street had hoped. Suddenly, Apple is simply another technology company, nothing special. All that success and all that cash and people get sick of hearing how great the products are and how many they sell. Enough already! They want them to fall from grace. They wish for it, and when they fail, they take great glee.
And let’s face it, neither is a terribly likable organization. Belichick is often surly with the press. Jobs was secretive and paranoid (and reportedly downright mean to people). Cook is definitely more likable, but the organization remains closed and tight-lipped with him at the helm. When there was an issue with the iPhone 4 antenna, Jobs suggested people were holding it wrong. People don’t like that kind of answer, any more than they like Belichick snubbing an opposing coach during the post game handshake or telling a reporter “It is what it is.”
Yet, in spite of this, each of these individual leaders, and organizations have had an uncanny way of taking good personnel and wringing out every last bit of talent from them to build a product and a brand that exudes success and greatness.
Perhaps, it’s just human nature to want such successful entities to fail, but instead of wasting our time hating the insanely great, maybe we should step back and see what got them to this point — a leader with keen vision and uncanny motivational skills and employees with a desire deep in their bellies to reach the apex every time.
Photo Credit Jobs/Cook: thetaxhaven on Flickr. Used under Creative Commons SA license. Photo Credit Brady/Belichick: Andrew Choy on Flickr. Used under Creative Commons SA license.
As business users increasingly find themselves connecting to the internet away from the office, the cloud and mobile devices grow ever more important. This blog will look at ways these issues are affecting IT and the ways companies link data so it's updated wherever you are.