US Bureau of Labor Statistics

September 09 Employment Situation

This morning the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the employment numbers for August, 2009. These numbers aren’t especially good: they reversed the modest trend from June and July during which time the unemployment rate remained relatively unchanged at around 9.4 percent. The August numbers show a loss of 466,000 jobs which increased overall unemployment to 9.7 percent, and included jumps in unemployment rates for adult men (to 10.1 percent), whites (to 8.9 percent), and Hispanics (to 13.0 percent). The total number of unemployed persons reported rose to 14.9 million Americans.

I don’t see many glimmers of hope for IT professionals in these numbers, either. Table A-11 ”Unemployed persons by industry and class of worker, not seasonally adjusted” shows that the information category has experienced unemployment of 358,000 up from 144,000 in August of 2008, which represents a jump in unemployment rates from 4.2 percent (2008) to 10.7 percent (2009). For those IT professionals who may be classified under the heading of professional and business services instead, the corresponding figures are equally grim: 961,000 in 2008 (6.9 %) versus 1,560,000 in 2009 (11.0 %). Ouch!

What’s my verdict for the present situation: “sit tight, and make no sudden or rash moves” remains the watchword for the foreseeable future. Though we may have seen some indicators that the recession has bottomed out, it still hasn’t helped to turn the IT employment situation around just yet. Hang in there, because it looks like we might still hit the 10-plus-percent values this fall that economists predicted for the trough of the recession. I sincerely hope we see some reversals in the employment declines, especially for the industry and worker categories related to IT, not only because that’s where I work (and you, too, most likely, if you’re reading this) but because IT is so often the engine that helps to drive recovery and improvement forward.

Good news/bad news on unemployment

Yesterday’s unemployment figures from the BLS and the most recent unemployment claims numbers tell a “good news/bad news” story about the job market. Actually it’s really more of a “bad news/good news” tale, because the bad news is that unemployment has hit a 26-year high of 8.9 percent (the last time we visited this spot on the charts was in 1983), while the good news is only that job loss claims have dropped from numbers in the 600,000-plus range to 539,000 for April. Because analysts had been expecting numbers as high as 620,000 for April, this is an interesting and possibly significant downward swing. Apparently, the US Government played a role in this dip: the hriing of temps to work for the US Census for 2010 was a factor in this downturn. For all the details check out the latest “Employment Situation Summary” from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

As usual Table B-1: Employment on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail sheds a little more light on recent trends in IT. The information category shows jobs down in April by a modest 17,000, with only a minimal loss of 800 jobs in the “Other information services” sub-category under that heading. Professional and business services also show relatively modest job losses in the areas most likely connected with IT, including a modest uptick of 1,600 jobs in the “Management and technical consulting services” sub-category.

It’s tempting to find cause for optimism in even the slightest reversal of free-fall in employment and economic numbers. But as Scott Simon said on NPR this morning (I’m paraphrasing): “We can’t really say things are improving, just that they’re not getting worse as quickly as they were before.” If we can take some cheer from a situation that’s stopped deteriorating as quickly as it has been, I think I’ll wait to break out the champagne and canapes for when the numbers actually start to appear on the positive side of the ledger in more than one or two small sub-categories. But even then, I find myself wondering if we’re not finally on the way back up?

About IT (Un)Employment: It Could Always Be Worse

For a quick take on the US Government’s view of the current employment situation, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary always provides a pretty current view. In reading over the most recent report–for January 2009, dated 2/6/2009–I got a strong sense of where much of the recent doom and gloom in our economic outlook comes from. Baldly over-simplified this report might be summarized as “Jobs are down all over.” Big surprise, right?

Top-line numbers certainly are scary:

• The number of unemployed persons is up to 11.6 million and the unemployment rate is up to 7.6%. This is an increase of 4.1 million unemployed over the last year, and an increase in the rate by 2.7%.
• Long-term unemployed persons count is holding steady at 2.7 million (people who’ve been out of work for 27 weeks or longer), and has gone up by 1.3 million in the last year.
• Unemployment numbers by category are also on the rise: adult men is up to 7.6%, adult women to 6.2%, whites 6.9%, blacks 12.6%, and Hispanics 9.7%; for teenagers that number is unchanged at a whopping 20.8%.

All this said, there is a glimmer of hope in these number for IT professionals. Though many other employment sectors lost significantly more ground in January (retail trade 45,000 jobs; transportation and warehousing 44,000 jobs; financial activities 42,000 jobs) professional and technical jobs were down “only” by 29,000 for the month. We IT geeks may be sucking wind, but at least we’re sucking less wind than some other sectors! On the upside, health care employment is up 19,000 (11,000 less than the average for 2008), and private education is up 33,000.

For another dash of salt on the wounds, nonfarm numbers for November were revised downward from -584,000 to -597,000 for November, 2008, and from -524,000 to -577,000 for December, 2008. All I can say to my fellow IT professionals and colleagues is “Hang in there!”