Things are still limping along slowly and painfully, rather than gliding effortlessly from month to month. I’m seeing a pattern best described as “one step forward, then two steps back” emerging from recent patterns of activity. Of course, businesses are still holding onto their cash unsure that they can part from reserves they still believe might be necessary to cover cash flow needs (it’s hard to invest in growth, when you can’t be sure incoming cash flow is going to offset necessary outflows). Likewise, consumers are having trouble with confidence, and aren’t inclined to initiate spending sprees (or part with as much discretionary income as usual) right now.

Here we are again: Hunker down, do only what’s absolutely necessary, and keep waiting for things to improve. What is it going to take to get things moving again? I wish I knew: I’d invest in my ideas, in hope that this might be the beat of the butterfly’s wing that gets the whole system moving forward again.