The big trend with Cloud Computing providers these days is a focus on “Enterprise” customers and workloads. We see this from AWS, VMware, EMC, Cisco, Microsoft, IBM, HP and others. Regardless of how each of those companies define “Enterprise”, this means that they are now subject to the rigors of TCO calculations prior to major purchases being made. Welcome to the wonderful world of Enterprise IT.
Now for the fun part. Building a TCO model that properly explains how much the offering will cost over a standard period of time – typically 3-5 years. Having built several of these models in the past, I know that they are always held up to huge amounts of scrutiny. Whether customers think you’re trying to hide or mislead them on costs, or whether customer believe you don’t understand realistic use-cases, no two TCO models are ever the same. They all make assumptions and they all have to make tradeoffs between completeness of information and usability (eg. too many inputs, too many calculations). With that in mind, let’s take a look at a recent attempt at a TCO calculator by AWS, comparing their server vs. traditional data centers.
Let’s begin by asking a few basic questions:
- What type of use-cases or applications does the TCO tool allow to be modeled? (eg. redundancy, security, availability, performance, etc.)
- What assumptions does the TCO tool make about how costs are calculated? (eg. cost of equipment; cost of IT resources; efficiency of IT resources – both people and equipment)
- Does the TCO tool make reasonable comparisons between each model? Too many tools compare one approach’s “best” vs. another approaches “worst” scenario.
- Does the TCO tool surface all the assumptions of both approaches, or just the approach of the tool originator?
With the announcement of the release of OpenStack “Icehouse”, the 9th version of the series of OpenStack projects, it’s now time for the community to focus their attention on the 2014 (Spring) OpenStack Summit in Atlanta, GA. This is an opportunity for the OpenStack Foundation to provide their version of the “State of the Stack”, by highlight customers using the software and interesting trends in the marketplace. It’s also a multi-day set of design sessions for engineers involved in the “Juno” (J) release, which is targeted for Fall 2014. Last but not least, it’s a massive recruiting and networking event, where every company has a vacancy sign out front for anyone with OpenStack-centric skills or experience.
This year, I’ll be interested to see a few things:
The Marquee Customer
There have been rumors for over a year that a Fortune 10 customer would be announced as a huge OpenStack user, for production applications. That name hasn’t emerged yet. I’ll be looking for big names building internal Private Clouds on OpenStack, and at least a few names using Service Provider clouds powered by OpenStack.
OpensStack has long been touted as the alternative to AWS (and often VMware), with the promise of open-clouds for customers. I’ll be looking for progress on overall interoperability between BOTH cloud providers and between distributions of OpenStack. This is still enough of an issue that Red Hat’s General Manager of Open Hybrid Cloud Programs (Alessandro Perilli, @giano) took to Twitter to highlight his belief that start-up OpenStack distributions (or products) should not be trusted by customers because the risk of start-up failure is too high. Indirectly, this is also a statement of the interoperability of various OpenStack distributions, if he’s claiming that switching costs could run into the $$ millions. Continued »
[A better title might be, “How to Drive Yourself Crazy Thinking About Your Career in Tech”]
I wasn’t around when the horse and buggy era ended, but sometimes I feel like I’m having the same conversations that the blacksmiths, saddle makers and stable sweeps had back in the early 1900s. Fast forward a hundred years and this 3rd platform transition has a lot of people wondering what to do next.
Let me step back and put some of this in context. During the late 1990s and early 2000s, the Internet changed everything. Where we work. How we work. The importance of technology for business success. And because of technology, very few of us have the same career path that our parents had before us.
- Companies are no longer centrally located, with their workforces being globally dispersed.
- Companies no longer maintain all their own internal services, often using resources available over the Internet to achieve the best mix of price and service.
- Companies no longer provide long-term pension plans (except some government agencies), so employees rarely stay at the same companies for their entire career.
- Customers (buyers) no longer get all of their knowledge from their suppliers. The Internet allows thousands of voices and opinions to impact their knowledge and buying decisions.
- Customers (buyers) are increasingly looking for new sources and consumption models for the technology that will help their businesses.
- Public Cloud and Open Source Software are moving the margins and control away from vendors and onto parties that can more directly control their future. The supply chain is shifting and with it is the location of value-capture.
So what does this have to do with Cloud Computing? Most people would tend to think that the majority of my days and nights are filled with deep, enlightening conversations about the topic. I wish. In fact, I am spending more and more of my time with people asking what’s next, specifically as it relates to their career in technology.
The Rise of the Rockstars
No phrase in our industry drives me crazier than “He/She is a Rockstar!” Why? A couple reasons:
- Most bands aren’t made up of dozens of people on stage; instead it’s just a few. So most people are either roadies or groupies.
- Rockstars travel. A lot. That’s part of the job. The big money is in being close to the customer. No travel, no rockstar.
- Not all rockstars make the big money. There are plenty that are only headlining at small venues in 2nd or 3rd-tier cities.
- Except for a few rare exceptions, Rockstars burn out in a short period of time.
- Rockstars begin to expect indulgences that lead to unrealistic expectations. Continued »
The “Five Computer” Theory
In 1943, Thomas Watson said, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“ Then in the early 2000s, when the Web 2.0 era was starting GigaOm- resurrected the idea (sorry, can’t find the link, circa 2001-2003), but this time it was five clouds – Google (Search/Ads), Salesforce (Business), Amazon (Retail) and two others. In the first case, it was well before the PC and Smartphone era. In the second case, it was believed that we’d see massive consolidation of web services as companies struggled to figure out business models beyond freemium or backed by Google Ads.
Since then we’ve seen the rise of many “giant computers” – AWS, Google Compute Platform (and all the Google properties – Search, YouTube, Gmail, Maps, etc.), Microsoft/Windows Azure (and their other online properties), Twitter, Facebook, WebEx, Ebay – as well as the rise of many businesses built on top of those computers – Dropbox, SnapChat, Zynga, Box, NetFlix, etc.
We know from the Gartner IaaS MQ that it can be very difficult for smaller companies to catch up to AWS. But this year, I suspect the chart will be somewhat different as Google Compute Platform and VMware vCHS are added, and Microsoft Azure has expanded. Will we begin to see rapid consolidation of the “giant computer” market, with more businesses being built on top of the leaders? Or is still too early to see how the evolution to the 3rd platform will play out?
Opportunities for DevOps Consultants
My friend Jeff Schneider (MomentumSI, Transcend Computing) recently wrote a nice blog on how to evaluate consulting companies that focus on Cloud Computing. More and more, I get questions from my friends working at VARs (and vendors) trying to figure out how to get better prepared for DevOps (tools, methodology, skills, etc.). I believe there is a huge opportunity for the DevOps focused consulting companies to target VARs and existing vendors with training that would accelerate the understanding of this space. Some might argue that this could eventually eliminate the consultants existing business, but I believe the opposite would happen. They’d see an acceleration of companies looking to adopt the skills/tolls/methodologies, and they would continue to be the leading experts. The VARs (and vendors) would bring them into customers at a pace they have never seen before, because of their local presence and existing relationships. The gap between the consulting experts and the average Dev or IT team is huge. There is opportunity there to shrink the gap and significantly expand the market demand.
Can anything slow down AWS?
I get asked this all the time. Watching them continue to innovate and reduce prices, it can often be difficult to image a scenario where this happens. But there are plenty of possibilities: Continued »
The week of March 23rd, 2014 might go down in history as 1 AG (After Google). By launching (or re-launching, who can really keep up), the Google Cloud Platform (GCP) officially created a public utility cloud marketplace.
What? How can that be, considering that there are lots of recognized Cloud providers? While it’s true that all of these companies exist, and many run excellent businesses for specific market segments, most of them aren’t focused on the utility elements of the market.
On the 8th day, the Internet was created. And with it came (basically) seamless ability to access and move information around the big tangled mess of Intertubes. Apparently those TCP/IP inventors were pretty smart. And apparently ever since that day, or whenever Cloud Day 1 was, people have had the belief they could coordinate to do something similar for applications, application-containers and all of their associated data. They like to draw analogies to how email works, or how your mobile phone roams from carrier to carrier. And hence, there is the dream of a Federated InterCloud of Hybridness.
This past week, the market rumbled about how Cisco was planning to spend $1B to create the InterCloud. Since $1B is the new starting point for making cloud announcements or investments, this caught people’s attention. Also, because some media misunderstood it to be that Cisco was actually going to get into the Cloud business and directly compete against AWS, GCP, Azure, Rackspace, etc. That’s not actually the case. This about selling equipment to lots of SPs, with the hope that they will interconnect and allow companies to freely move between them. InterCloud’ing at the network layer, with a means of interconnecting with public cloud APIs.
But Cisco is by no means the first to drive this concept. Let’s take a look at who else has been driving this.
One of the most interesting things about doing The Cloudcast (podcast) is the variety of topics we get to discuss and the perspectives from people across our industry. Over the past few weeks, we’ve done shows focused on the evolution of PaaS, trends with AWS and public cloud, and how large-scale web companies scale. Regardless of whether the perspective was about large Enterprises, using Public Cloud providers or running large-scale operations, every one of the guests repeatedly brought up the growing demand for DevOps skills.
Let me step back and clarify a little bit. Saying a company needs “DevOps skills” is sort of like saying that a company needs to buy “Cloud products”. Both Cloud and DevOps are terms used to describe operational models. And in most cases, they are intertwined. Cloud tends to be more focused on self-service, on-demand resources. DevOps is focused on agile development and agile operational models than are tightly integrated. Both are focused on increasing the velocity that applications can be deployed (and updated) to help a business reach their goals.
There were a few interesting/insightful comments from those shows that got me thinking quite a bit:
“While many companies will use tools like Puppet or NewRelic (or whatever) to deploy to AWS, they have alot of skepticism that their tools companies will be around in a few years. So these companies are encouraging their people to really understand the mechanics of how they deal with operations and deployments. Over the next 2yrs, DevOps skills will be the most highly in demand, especially for anyone that considers themselves in IT Ops today.” – Mat Ellis (Cloudability)
“The problems within an Enterprise are no different than the problems of a start-up, especially if you buy into the notion that every successful company over the next 10yrs will have to have a significant involvement with software (across any industry).” – Mark Imbriaco (GitHub) Continued »
When I got into the technical side of the IT industry back in the 1990s, there was a company just down the street that was starting to gain some traction – RedHat – and they were pushing this new variant of Unix that some of my more experienced colleagues thought was interesting. Most of them already had deep UNIX backgrounds, so they were excited about the idea of a free version that ran on x86 hardware. I was less interested at the time because I thought the things a Cisco IOS box could do were pretty interesting and gave me more than enough to study for my pending CCIE.
Flash forward 15+ years and all that LInux stuff is all over the place as more capabilities that used to be in dedicated devices has now moved out into various LInux-based products and open-source distributions. Whether it’s in the networking space (OpenDayLight, Open vSwitch, OpenStack Neutron, Cumulus Linux, Quagga) or the storage space (CEPH, OpenStack Swift/Cinder, RedHat Gluster, etc.) or the Cloud management space (CloudStack, OpenStack, Cloud Foundry, OpenShift, etc.) or the underpinnings of modern application development, Linux is behind the pace of change in Cloud Computing. Continued »
Before getting into any technology discussions/definition about Hybrid Cloud, it’s important to understand what value it potentially provides to businesses. In the most basic definition, “hybrid” means multiple things brought together to work as a unified system. For most businesses, this means that every function (Finance, Sales, Marketing, Engineering, etc.) will utilize whatever mix of resources provide them the most efficient combination of agility, cost and risk-management. IT should be not different. In fact, given the popularity of SaaS applications, most IT organizations have already deployed a variation of a “Hybrid Cloud” or at least “Hybrid IT”, where it makes sense for them to utilize outside resources for functionality that might not be core to their business (Core vs. Competency). From a business perspective, IT organizations that look for Hybrid Cloud solutions are seeking ways to maximize their ability to deliver technology solutions for their business, utilizing the most appropriate global resources available to them at any given time. IT organizations need this flexibility to be able to align to how the rest of their peer groups within an organization operate.
Evolving Hybrid Cloud Definition
- The industry needs a definition that isn’t just about Public+Private = Hybrid, but needs a definition where Hybrid is also about Platform2 + Platform3 apps. (Platform2 = Existing, traditional applications; Platform3 = modern, next-gen, web-scale, mobile, social, big data applications)
- The industry needs a definition that allows customer to Build+Buy Cloud (CAPEX+OPEX) to deliver the best overall cost (long-term apps = BUILD; short-term, variable apps = BUY)
- Businesses want to seamlessly manage both Platform 2 and Platform 3 applications, within an integrated framework of SW + HW
- Businesses want to mix and match HW-defined and SW-defined across clouds to deliver Hybrid Cloud services across any cloud
- Businesses want toSaaS simplicity with Enterprise security & control.
Earlier this week, Andi Mann (@andimann) posted a simple question on Twitter about how we should treat our data. It evolved out of the commonly used phase that “you should treat servers like cattle and not pets“, a reference to more modern applications that are modular and designed around the failure characteristics of commodity hardware.
[NOTE: There is some debate over who originates or popularized this phrase]
While choosing how to treat your servers can be closely aligned to the types of applications being used, it’s a little more complicated when trying to align an analogy to data. First of all, some people think data (by itself) isn’t very valuable, until you apply some context around it and turn it into information. The “Data Gravity” theories (podcast). Other primarily focus on how data is organized and manipulated within various databases as the critical element to address. Still others are focused on the complexity and variability of the storage mechanism of the data (lots of architectures and form factors).
So why would I say that we should treat the data like “grandparents”?
Let’s start with some basic analogies and comparisons.
Value of Data – Most people would not argue with the idea that their data is important and are willing to spend large sums of money to keep it protected from being lost (or corrupted). This is not only true of the storage industry, but also of the human life industry. In data, just as in life, we will often spend 3-10x the cost to retain and protect the data as we did to create it. Backups, Clones, Snapshots, Archieves, Cloud Storage, Home Storage, etc.. All to make sure that data is around for a long, long time.