1: The fizz (and fizzle) of the Y2K bug. Whatever apocalypse was supposed to happen  didn’t.  It still isn’t clear whether that was because Y2K software issues were overblown or that the hype forced businesses to proactively fix problems before the new year. In any case, a lot of software got patched and updated.

2: Microsoft monopoly shows vulnerability.

The millenium kicked off just after a U.S. district court judge ruled that Microsoft was a monopoly that illegally tried to leverage its operating systems power.  While a lot of the ruling’s impact was eventually mitigated, Microsoft still faced antitrust cases in several states and several private suits. It just recently resolved anti-trust issues in the European Union. The company must offer European consumers a choice of browsers from its Windows desktop–although Microsof’ts Internet Explorer franchise was already under assault by Firefox, Safari, Opera, Google Chrome and other options.

As the decade progressed, the company showed further frailties as it tried to enter new markets–Internet search and advertising–while neglecting its franchise desktop OS, allowing a sub-par Vista release that was widely panned. That misstep has taken years to overcome.

3: The rise of Google.

By the time Google launched its record-breaking IPO in 2004, it was a bona fide giant, already unsettling incumbents like Microsoft and IBM. Some (IBM, Oracle etc.)  rushed to embrace Google Search incorporating it into their software offerings. Others (Microsoft and Yahoo) tried to out-google Google.

4: Oracle grows and grows and grows.

Oracle started out the decade big, fielding the world’s market-leading database. But with a series of huge purchases–not all of them friendly–it became the go-to power in enteprise software, causing consternation at SAP, Microsoft and IBM. Starting in 2003, Oracle launched bids for PeopleSoft (and J.D. Edwards), Siebel Systems, BEA Systems, and dozens of smaller companies. It closed out the decade with a stunning $7.4 billion offer for Sun Microsystems–which, when complete, will put Oracle into hardware. European regulators look likely to approve that deal after months of delay and negotiation.

5: HP passes IBM as the biggest IT provider .

Hewlett-Packard CEO Mark Hurd made it official on an earnings call in November, 2006, that with revenue hitting nearly $92 billion for its fiscal year, HP became the largest tech company in the universe in the world. 

6: The rise of server virtualization

By letting data centers put multiple workloads securely and safely on shared servers, virtualization moved beyond the mainframe and into the mainstream and changed the way companies buy and deploy software.

By consolidating workloads, IT shops can retire tons of old servers and save on energy costs.

7: iPhone rocks and rules.

Apple Steve Jobs announced the first apple iPhone with its innovative touch-screen intereface in January, 2007, completely upending any news coming out of the Consumer Electronics Show happening at the same time in Las Vegas. People waited hours in line for their iPhone, despite the fact that they’re only available  on AT&T’s not-well-reviewed service. in the next few years, support for Microsoft Exchange and other corporate standards showed the consumer darling making headway in business.

8: Mobilizing the Internet.

The Blackberry and iPhone together share credit for putting Internet access on the road. Many road warriers started leaving their notebooks at home, using their smartphones for email and other office tasks.

9: Open source goes mainstream.

Linux, Apache, TomCat that used to sneak in the back door, gained credibility as even old-school companies like IBM played the open source card. It didn’t even matter that it was played mostly in a proxy battle with Microsoft.

10: Dotcom boom/bust

The only thing more dramatic than the dot.com euphoria that made companies like Pets.com industry leaders was the subsequent, and longer, dot.com bust. On the plus side, the fact that Internet access– that fed the bubble also enabled a generation of new “cloud-based” applications and services to come online.

Microsoft did a good thing when it amended its planned Windows 7 downgrade rights to give PC buyers 18 months (instead of the original 6) from the October 22 ship date to downgrade to Windows XP or Vista or stick with Win 7.  So that gives you 18 months from Oct 22, or until Service Pack 1  (SP1) debuts, to decide.

But still, given that many shops wait till SP 1 to evaluate any Microsoft OS, there is still an issue.

For large shops which buy PCs by the boatload to have in stock–there could still be a big headache. Until they can check out SP 1 thoroughly, they will allocate XP or Vista machines to people who need PCs. Then the question is how does their IT staff–or the channel proxy–track which PCs can be downgraded or not. Sounds like a fulfilling job that will have those same staffs reaching for the Extra Strength Excedrin.

And what about OEMs with tons of PCs in the pipeline that have no idea how many will be sold by the magic date–whatever that turns out to be? If Microsoft wants to push the point, it can demand that users show that  they bought machine X before thus-and-so date. This will not be very easy to do.

This is all part of a much larger, and hairier question: Why is software licensing so complicated? Microsoft (and Oracle and whomever) all talk about how they’ve simplified licensing–but the sad fact remains that it’s harder to decipher than the Dead Sea Scrolls. A cynic might think this is because complexity breeds profit to the software vendor. For the user, it simply feeds frustration and angst.

What do you think about Microsoft’s Windows 7 downgrade policy — or Microsoft licensing in general? Send mail to: Barbara Darrow.

Estimated retail price (ERP) on upgrades is $119.99 for Win 7 Home Premium; $199.99 for Professional; $219.99 for Ultimate. These (U.S.) prices are presumably for users moving from either Windows XP or Vista.

ERP for full packaged retail product  is$199.99.99 for Home Premium; $299.99 for Professional; and $319 for Ultimate.

The blog characterized some of this as an outright price cut:

“For Windows 7, we are reducing the price on our most popular retail product for customers, the Home Premium Upgrade, by approximately 10% (depending on the market). In the U.S., this means a customer buying Windows 7 Home Premium upgrade will pay only $119.99 instead of the $129.99 being charged today for its predecessor.”

Some VARs don’t agree that Win 7 is a bargain  There has been a lot of grumbling about how hardware prices have fallen while the percentage of the PC cost attributable to WIndows is disproportionately high. That’s one reason some hardware OEMs are seriously looking at Android or Linux for new netbooks, and many VARs are lauding that move.

Given the rocky reception Windows Vista got, WIn 7 is seen as  a very important product for Microsoft.

Yesterday, the company amended some downgrade terms for Windows 7. The company has decided that people with OEM licenses for Windows 7 Professional or Ultimate editions, can downgrade to Windows XP Professional on any machine that ships within 18 months after Windows 7 becomes generally available.   Or until there’s a Windows 7 service pack. Or whichever comes first. Microsoft has publicly pledged that Windows 7 will hit the shelves on October 22.

Previously, Microsoft had given a six month window for such downgrades–a restriction that was panned out of hand. “From October 22, the six months start. and most companies don’t even think about moving to a new OS until there’s a service pack . But the time SP1 for Windows arrives and you evaluate, your downgrade rights are gone.”

They can also downgrade to Vista at any time, an option that will go “widely unused,” according to one analyst.

One licensing expert apprised of the news said Microsoft really muddied the waters with its stated plans, then the quick restatement of those plans. 

“There’s something seriously wrong with your launch planning when you ask analysts and customers what they think, they tell you they hate it, you go ahead anyway and then change your mind a few days later.”

Given the Vista ups and downs, it’s hard to tell what pent-up demand there is for Windows 7. Many shops, citing the economy, are in no particular hurry to undergo big migrations.

One big question is how Microsoft will deal with those customers who’ve already gone to Vista.  At TechEd a few weeks ago,  Microsoft senior vice president Bill Veghte said the company will protect that investment. It’s unclear exactly how it will do that, but several partners said Microsoft will have to offer extremely inexpensive (aka near-free) Vista-to-Windows 7 upgrades.

 1: Microsoft burns with Silverlight fever. This is not a good thing. Microsoft, everyone knows you have Flash envy, but remember that many Web surfers hate, hate, HATE flashy multimedia sites that are more about showcasing technology than providing information. Remember, just because you can do something, doesn’t mean you should do it.  Show goers blasted the TechEd 2009 web site’s poor usability. Want to scroll down the sessions, put the cursor just there. No, not there. Scootch over–THERE! Try the schedule builder? Fuhgeddaboudit.  One of the greatest things about Google (yes, Google, get over it!) is its sparse interface.

Case in point, one Microsoft partner at the show, has a very, um, dynamic website. Lots of transition effects and moving type. But,  it took five minutes to find out where the company is based and  it’s phone number. Fun  and games for the Web designer, just plain irritating for the user.  

2: Vista is dead. Long live Vista. The week before the big show, Microsoft corporate VP Robert Wahbe was asked if the lack of Vista mentions on the show site meant Vista was, in fact, defunct. Au contraire, he said that Vista remains the way to go for companies who want to make sure their apps will work in Windows 7. Bill Veghte told a slightly different story from the show. Actually a very different story. He advised shops that haven’t started testing Vista–and those who have just started–to test Win 7 instead.

TechEd speaker Mark Minasi admitted on stage that he’s a Vista fan. “I know,  I’m the only one. [but] I like Win 7 even better. One of the best things about it is it’s very much like Vista.”

A showgoer summed it up: “A few years ago they told us Vista would fix all our problems. Now they’re telling us Windows 7 will fix all our problems and we’re supposed to believe it this time.”

 3: Microsoft must get over the feature war.   News flash: Most Microsoft users don’t want more features, they don’t use the ones they have. Most want a computer that turns on and off fast, doesn’t hang, and lets them do what they need to do. One of Microsoft’s problems is that it insists on providing new features that are supposed to “surface” existing features and make them easier to use. The biggest example, the Office 2007 ribbon, mostly just confuses the issue. When a company has to release videos to explain new ease-of-use features, something’s wrong. Word to the wise: The person in charge of the Office ribbon, Julie Larson-Green,   now leads the Win 7 interface charge. 

Attendee: “There was no business case to go to Office 2007. We didn’t move our 300 users to it because there was no reason to.” Microsoft’s primary reason for users to move to the newest office is to stay legal. Not compelling.

 4: Microsoft’s claim to be the low-cost provider rings hollow.  When you compile the cost of the entire stack, and  the cost of keeping abreast of all the interdependencies, Microsoft hadn’t been the cheap or perhaps even the lowest-cost provider for a long time, so let’s put that fiction to rest.  Big companies naturally bark at Enterprise Agreement volume pricing but are really balking now. Nothing like a recession-verging-on-something-worse to give them the strength of their budget-cutting convictions.

Several sources said their companies are negotiating big discounts and Microsoft, for once, is playing along. Oracle has always discounted software license deals big time–so that $40K per CPU for the database ends up being less than half of that. Sometimes way less. But till the past year, Microsoft was loathe to negotiate on its EAs.

Two Microsoft evangelists on a TechEd panel were confronted head on about EA woes by an attendee. Their response boiled down to: “Oh, you’re not using enough of the software you’ve licensed or you’re not using all the features you have.” Another partner panelist echoed that contention. Turned out this panelist’s company was not only a Microsoft partner, but actually under contract with Microsoft. It would have been nice for that relationship to have been disclosed up front, attendees agreed.

In short, the collective Microsoft take on volume license pricing then is: “If your EA is too expensive, it’s your fault.” Interesting strategy.

5: What Microsoft’s integrated stack gives and it also takes away. Microsoft says its stack –from Windows and Visual Studio to the various servers and desktop apps–is the way to go because all that stuff works together so well. However, when one piece gets upgraded, there are myriad issues with the rest of it. Case in point: A session on migrations to Exchange 2007 from Exchange 2000 or 2003, featured nearly 50 slides of known gotchas.  Truly impressive, in a shudder-inducing sort of way. Is this really so much easier than supporting and maintaining the LAMP stack? Are you sure?

“If you’re deploying Windows Vista …  we are going to protect that investment for you, and you can utilize that. If you’re just starting your testing of Vista, with the release candidate [of Windows 7] and the quality of that offering, I would switch over and do your testing on the release candidate, and use that going forward. If you’re waiting for Windows 7, holiday broad availability, that’s what we’re tracking for.”

 

The usual “quality-issues-could-cause delays” caveat was dutifully applied. But by telling testers to move to Win 7 spells the beginning of the end for the sad Vista saga.  

Just how Microsoft will protect those Vista shops remains to be seen.

More news out of TechEd 2009 here.

Somehow this juicy item slipped through the cracks last week.  Jim Allchin, ex of Microsoft (ex of Banyan) and the guy behind Vista is cutting disks now.  A Microsoft insider has heard it and said Allchin had long surprised colleagues with his blues guitar expertise. “His playing is really excellent” this person said. But what about his singing? “Next question.”