And there’s no shortage of Sun VARs who claim–off the record– that their customers are irked–make that irate–over the policy changes. Not at all hard to believe.

What I haven’t seen thus far is hard evidence that the Oracle changes have finally pushed Sun shops over the edge. Face it, most Sun hardware shops started to evaluate alternative hardware suppliers well before Oracle opened up its checkbook and the feds finally signed off on the buyout. The independent Sun Microsystems was a basket case for years before M&A rumors started to swirl around it, kicked off in earnest by IBM’s unsolicited bid for Sun last year.

Oracle is banking that those shops–and perhaps more–will go for its iPod-like integrated appliance to the data center and there it’s got some problems. These Exadata machines are very pricey and when you factor in support costs, they’re going to be beyond the pale for many, many shops. Add to that the fact that interested parties cannot get a demo unit without a signed purchase order. Note to Oracle: If a PO is involved, it ain’t  a demo unit.

So what are you seeing in Sun hardware accounts. Are customers really defecting en masse, or are they slowly “peeling” off new server purchases and spending with HP or IBM instead of Oracle-Sun?

For an educated look at Oracle’s Sun support plans and what they mean, check out Eric Guyer’s Oracle Optimization  blog here.

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My guess: No. At least not publicly.

Oracle has long irked customers with 22% annual fees for support and maintenance. Partners hated them too because they didn’t get a piece of the action. And yet…..the feeds continue. What Oracle doesn’t want people to know is how much wheeling and dealing goes on. That means its biggest customers, the ones most likely to be running SAP or Microsoft or other rival applications and infrastructure, have already cut their own deals that amount to significantly lower fees.

All of this is, as those in publishing are known to say, is “off the rate card.” C-level and upper management IT execs at large accounts claim (not for attribution, of course) that they are getting significantly better deals from Oracle and from other vendors. But the negotiations can be bloody.
Two IT sources said they are working, vendor by vendor, deal by deal, to get maintenance fees down below 20% per annum. And both said they have cut deals with Oracle –at least on parts of their business–that are in that range.

Given the pallid economic situation, expect more companies to get aggressive on this front and play vendors against each other to get better deals. Some partners say they have been asked by customers to help them negotiate better terms in return for a piece of the savings.

This could get really interesting.