Irregular Expressions

Dec 27 2012   9:36PM GMT

April 8th, 2014 The Next Apocalypse? – Part 3



Posted by: Dan O'Connor
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The next thing we have to look at is what is the current and trending browser shares.

I think this is the most important metric that will decide how much of a concern the number of active XP / IE8 machines there is post April 2014. Currently I cannot find any dates on when Chrome and FireFox will stop supporting XP, but they both list XP SP2 as the oldest version they will support. So I think they will be until at least yearly 2014, I cannot seem them supporting it as an install platform past April that year.

We can try and finish out that graph line for IE8 just to give us a number to work with.


Date IE 8.0
2008-12 0.82
2009-01 0.89
2009-02 1.18
2009-03 1.72
2009-04 3.66
2009-05 6.3
2009-06 8.88
2009-07 12.65
2009-08 15.09
2009-09 16.72
2009-10 18.18
2009-11 19.66
2009-12 20.45
2010-01 21.86
2010-02 23.73
2010-03 25.13
2010-04 26.1
2010-05 26.82
2010-06 27.83
2010-07 29.04
2010-08 29.4
2010-09 29.38
2010-10 29.65
2010-11 29.49
2010-12 29.55
2011-01 30.12
2011-02 30.29
2011-03 30.2
2011-04 30.24
2011-05 29.06
2011-06 27.67
2011-07 26.3
2011-08 25.68
2011-09 25.08
2011-10 23.83
2011-11 24
2011-12 22.12
2012-01 20.82
2012-02 18.86
2012-03 16
2012-04 14.69
2012-05 14.35
2012-06 13.78
2012-07 13.26
2012-08 13.65
2012-09 13.08
2012-10 12.66
2012-11 12
2012-12 11.59

The amount of market share that IE8 loses each month seems to be current around 0.5%. At least that is a conservative number of the past 12 months.


2013-01 11.1
2013-02 10.6
2013-03 10.1
2013-04 9.6
2013-05 9.1
2013-06 8.6
2013-07 8.1
2013-08 7.6
2013-09 7.1
2013-10 6.6
2013-11 6.1
2013-12 5.6
2014-01 5.1
2014-02 4.6
2014-03 4.1
2014-04 3.6

Well now I think we have enough that we can put a number on the machines that will still be running XP and IE8 by April 2014 now. I think it is going to be very conservative, and when we get there I think other factors will make it smaller. But this will work for us.

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