Irregular Expressions

Dec 27 2012   8:52PM GMT

April 8th, 2014 The Next Apocalypse? – Part 2

Dan O'Connor Dan O'Connor Profile: Dan O'Connor

So how do we figure out what the Windows XP usage will be post April 2014? If you look at the raw data from the chart ( Which you can download if you want to look at it ). Windows XP appears to be losing about 0.75% of market share every month, that is not scientific but it’s still pretty conservative;


Date WinXP
2008-07 75.07
2008-08 74.82
2008-09 74.73
2008-10 75.45
2008-11 76.78
2008-12 76.89
2009-01 74.86
2009-02 73.5
2009-03 72.85
2009-04 72.08
2009-05 71.69
2009-06 70.77
2009-07 69.95
2009-08 69.13
2009-09 68.49
2009-10 67.55
2009-11 65.71
2009-12 65.12
2010-01 63.47
2010-02 61.17
2010-03 59.7
2010-04 58.56
2010-05 58.02
2010-06 57.7
2010-07 56.31
2010-08 55.38
2010-09 54.28
2010-10 53
2010-11 51.77
2010-12 50.59
2011-01 48.78
2011-02 48
2011-03 47.32
2011-04 46.57
2011-05 45.83
2011-06 45.04
2011-07 43.89
2011-08 42.58
2011-09 40.59
2011-10 38.45
2011-11 37.91
2011-12 36.44
2012-01 34.78
2012-02 34.04
2012-03 33.49
2012-04 31.79
2012-05 31.06
2012-06 29.91
2012-07 29.1
2012-08 28.79
2012-09 27.64
2012-10 27.03
2012-11 26.19
2012-12 25.55

If you work off of 0.75 decline every month out to April 2014 you end up with around 14.5% Windows XP market share. Personally I think this will turn out to be less, I think there is still a large amount of corporations that are still running XP and plan on leaving in 2013. So I would expect to see a large decrease by the middle to end of this year.


2013-01 25
2013-02 24.25
2013-03 23.5
2013-04 22.75
2013-05 22
2013-06 21.25
2013-07 20.5
2013-08 19.75
2013-09 19
2013-10 18.25
2013-11 17.5
2013-12 16.75
2014-01 16
2014-02 15.25
2014-03 14.5
2014-04 13.75

Also before then users with Windows XP should start to abandon Internet Explorer 8 in greater numbers. At least in theory, this should create a slight increase in Chrome and FireFox users. It should also start getting more users moved that have been waiting to start upgrading as other vendors follow Google as it has already given IE8 walking papers for support inside Google Apps in November 2012. This should further reduce our 14.5% by April 2014.

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